低碳试点政策传导机制及其效应——基于多维数据的实证研究

Transmission Mechanism and Effect of Low-Carbon Pilot Policy:Empirical Research based on Multidimensional Data

低碳试点政策是中国加快推进生态文明建设、推动绿色低碳发展和实现温室气体排放控制目标的重要举措。本文提出低碳试点政策“目标—资源—信息”传导机制分析框架,利用城市层面的多维数据实证检验了低碳试点政策传导机制的有效性。研究发现:通过“目标—资源—信息”传导机制,低碳试点政策显著降低了试点省市的碳排放强度,不同类型数据的检验表明该结论具有稳健性。在目标导向传导机制下,目标通过层级压力实现传导,使得两批试点均取得显著降碳成效,且第一批试点的降碳成效优于第二批试点;在资源驱动传导机制下,碳排放交易试点与环境政策资源均在低碳试点政策的基础上产生了显著的叠加或交互效应,体现出政策资源的协同增效;在信息互动传导机制下,中央的有效指导与地方的积极反馈,实现了信息“传递-反馈”良性互动,产生试点政策长期增强效应。本研究对于优化低碳政策传导机制、发挥低碳政策降碳效应,支持“双碳”目标实现有重要借鉴意义。

The low-carbon pilot policy is an important measure for China to accelerate the construction of ecological civilization,promote green and low-carbon development,and achieve greenhouse gas emission control goals.This paper proposes an analytical framework for the“goal-resource-information”transmission mechanism of low-carbon pilot policies,and empirically tests the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of low-carbon pilot policies using multidimensional data at the city level.Results show that through the“goal-resource-information”transmission mechanism,the low-carbon pilot policies significantly reduce the carbon emission intensity of pilot provinces and cities,and the testing of different types of data shows that this conclusion was robust.With the goal-oriented transmission mechanism,the goals are transmitted through hierarchical pressure,making the two batches of pilots achieve significant carbon reduction results,and the carbon reduction results of the first batch of pilots are better than those of the second batch of pilots.With the resource-driven transmission mechanism,carbon emissions trading pilot and environmental policy resources have produced significant superposition or interaction effects based on low-carbon pilot policies,reflecting the synergy of policy resources.With the information-interaction transmission mechanism,effective guidance from the central government and active feedback from local governments have achieved a positive interaction between information“transmission and feedback”,resulting in a long-term enhancement effect of pilot policies.This study has important reference significance for optimizing the transmission mechanism of low-carbon policies and leveraging their carbon reduction effects to support the achievement of the“dual carbon”goals.