城市零售网点变化的空间分布特征及影响因素分析——以北京市六环内为例

Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics and influence factors of urban retail outlets changes:A case study of the Sixth Ring Road in Beijing

目前大多数研究主要集中于对零售网点的空间布局特征及驱动力的分析,对其变化空间分布的研究相对不足。本文主要采用变化显著性检验、热点分析和计数模型,探讨北京市2015~2017年零售网点变化的空间分布特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)2015~2017年北京市六环内零售网点整体增幅相较于减幅更为显著。(2)2015~2017年零售网点在东六环的朝阳区、通州区的增幅显著高于其他区,位于三环至六环东南部分的朝阳区、丰台区、通州区和大兴区的减幅明显高于其他区。(3)路网密度和地铁站点越密集、容积率越高、租金越低的地方,零售网点增加的概率越大;路网密度和地铁站点越稀疏、建筑覆盖率越高的地方,零售网点减少的概率越大。研究成果从侧面印证了北京市相关政策的执行情况,可为后续规划布局、政策调整等提供一定的技术参考。

At present,most research mainly focuses on analyzing the spatial layout characteristics and driving forces of retail outlets,with relatively insufficient research on their changing spatial distribution.This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution features and analyze the influencing factors of retail outlet changes in Beijing from 2015 to 2017.The research employs significance testing of changes,hotspot analysis,and counting models to achieve this objective.①Significance Testing of Changes:The study utilizes significance testing to compare the overall changes in retail outlets within Beijing’s Sixth Ring Road from 2015 to 2017.This statistical approach allows for an assessment of the magnitude and significance of the observed changes.②Hotspot Analysis:Hotspot analysis is employed to identify areas with significantly higher or lower changes in retail outlets.Specifically,the focus is on the increased presence of retail outlets in the eastern Sixth Ring,particularly in the Chaoyang and Tongzhou districts,and the notable decrease in the southeastern part encompassing Chaoyang,Fengtai,Tongzhou,and Daxing districts from the Third Ring to the Sixth Ring.③Counting Models:Counting models are applied to analyze the correlation between the density of road networks,the presence of subway stations,land use factors(such as floor area ratio),and rental rates with the probability of retail outlet changes.The study explores how factors like dense road networks,high floor area ratios,and lower rental rates contribute to an increased probability of retail outlet growth,while sparse road networks,high building coverage,and higher rental rates correspond to a higher probability of retail outlet decline.①Overall Changes within the Sixth Ring(2015-2017):The retail outlets within Beijing’s Sixth Ring Road experienced a more significant overall increase compared to a decrease during the period.②Regional Disparities(2015-2017):Retail outlet growth in the eastern Sixth Ring,specifically in Chaoyang and Tongzhou,outpaced other areas.Conversely,the southeastern region from the Third Ring to the Sixth Ring,including Chaoyang,Fengtai,Tongzhou,and Daxing,witnessed a more pronounced decline.③Influence of Urban Factors:The study identifies a correlation between urban factors and retail outlet changes.Areas with denser road networks,more subway stations,higher floor area ratios,and lower rental rates exhibit a higher probability of retail outlet growth,while areas with sparse road networks,greater building coverage,and higher rental rates show a higher likelihood of retail outlet decline.This research provides empirical evidence that the execution of relevant policies in Beijing aligns with the observed changes in the urban retail industry.The findings offer valuable insights for subsequent urban planning,layout design,and policy adjustments,serving as a reference for future initiatives in the dynamic landscape of the city’s retail sector.