中国锂资源安全评估与预警

Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China

锂是中国重要的战略性矿产资源,在锂资源需求快速增加、进口依赖严重的背景下,对中国锂资源安全进行评估与预警具有必要性和紧迫性。构建了以资源禀赋、进口安全、市场风险和地缘政治为一级指标的中国锂资源安全评估指标体系,利用常权和变权模型对2009—2021年中国锂资源安全状况进行了评估,采用ARIMA-BP组合模型对2022—2035年中国锂资源安全进行了预警。研究发现,①进口依赖度、进口集中度和运输通道风险对锂资源安全的影响最大;②2009—2021年中国锂资源安全等级由黄色—基本安全等级波动下降至橙色—不安全等级,资源禀赋和进口安全是导致锂资源安全等级较低的主要原因;③2022—2035年中国锂资源安全评分总体呈下降趋势,除2026年处于黄色—基本安全等级外,其余年份均处于橙色—不安全等级。

Lithium is an important strategic mineral resource in our country,under the background of lithium resource demand to increase rapidly,relying on import seriously,to our country lithium resource safety early warning analysis is necessary and urgent.Resource endowments,import security,market risk and geopolitics are selected as first-level indicators to construct an index system for the security of China's lithium resources.The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the security of lithium resources in China from 2009 to 2021.The ARIMA-BP model was used to study the security of lithium resources in China from 2022—2035.The tudy results indicate that:①External dependence,import concentration and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the security of lithium resources;②From 2009 to 2021,the safety level of lithium resources in China fluctuated from yellow-basic safety level to orange-unsafe level,The resource endowments and the import security are the main reasons for the low level of resource security;③From 2022 to 2035,the security score of China's lithium resources continued to decline.Except for 2026,which were in the yellow—basic safety level,the rest of the years were in the orange—unsafe level.