“十三五”期间中国探矿权及地质勘查投资时空演变

Temporal and spatial evolution of prospecting rights and geological exploration investment in China during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period

基于详细的统计数据,从时间、空间、结构等多个纬度,对中国探矿权及地质勘查投资情况进行了时间序列、因素相关性等对比分析和综合研究,为政府管理部门制定政策和规划提供参考依据。通过研究,揭示了影响探矿权及地质勘查投资的主要因素、底层逻辑和发展规律,并认为受国内外宏观经济增速放缓、地缘政治等因素影响,特别是国内相关产业政策、生态和环境保护压力,“十三五”期间中国探矿权数、地质勘查投入和新发现矿产地持续大幅度减少。“十三五”期间,新立探矿权同比减少52.1%,注销探矿权数是“十二五”期间的3.7倍多。油气矿产的探矿权登记面积和地质勘查投资分别占全国的96%和77.6%;非油气矿产探矿权数占全国的90%以上,有近60%的非油气探矿权在西部地区;非油气地质勘查投资中,水工环及科技等投资额占居半壁江山。预计中国在能源矿产、战略性矿产等勘查领域将增加勘查投入,地质勘查投资将于2024年后逐渐走出低谷。

This paper conducts a comparative analysis and comprehensive study of the situation of prospecting rights and geological exploration investment in China from multiple dimensions such as time,space,and structure,including time series and factor correlation analysis based on detailed statistical data.The purpose is to provide a reference basis for government management departments to formulate policies and planning.This research paper reveals the main factors,underlying logic,and development laws affecting prospecting rights and geological exploration investment,and draws the following conclusions.Influenced by the slowdown of the macroeconomic growth at home and abroad,as well as geopolitical factors,especially domestic industry policies and ecological environmental pressures,the number of prospecting rights,geological exploration investment,and new mineral discoveries in China during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period have continued to decrease significantly.During the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,the newly established prospecting rights decreased by 52.1% compared to the previous period,while the number of canceled prospecting rights was more than 3.7 times that of the"12th Five-Year Plan"period.The registration area of oil and gas mineral prospecting rights and geological exploration investment accounted for 96% and 77.6% of the national total,respectively;non-oil and gas prospecting rights accounted for more than 90% nationwide,with nearly 60% of non-oil and gas prospecting rights located in western regions;in non-oil and gas geological exploration investment,investments in water conservancy,environmental protection,and technology accounted for a large proportion.It is expected that China will increase exploration investment in the fields of energy minerals,strategic minerals,and geological exploration investment will emerge from its low point after 2024.