肝移植术后早期移植器官功能不全的预测模型构建

Construction of predictive model for early allograft dysfunction after liver transplantation

目的分析肝移植术后早期移植物功能不全(early allograft dysfunction,EAD)的相关因素并构建预测模型。方法收集2008年12月至2021年12月于我院麻醉科手术室实施肝移植手术的375例患者,其中术后发生EAD的患者90例,未发生EAD的患者266例,比较2组患者30项基线资料。按照7∶3的比例进行分组后,在训练集中依次采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析评价EAD的相关因素并构建列线图,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)、临床决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值、Kappa值等指标评估模型表现。结果肝移植术后EAD发生率为24%。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,术前肿瘤复发史(OR=3.15,95%CI:1.28~7.77,P=0.013)、手术时间(OR=1.22,95%CI:1.04~1.42,P=0.015)与术后发生EAD有关,根据约登指数鉴定的0.519为截点划分预测结局后,训练集和验证集中模型表现尚可,临床决策曲线提示模型有较好的临床适用性。结论术后EAD的危险因素为术前肿瘤复发史、手术时间,建立的模型能较好地预测患者的预后。

Objective To analyze the factors related to early allograft dysfunction(EAD)after liver transplantation and to construct a predictive model.Methods A total of 375 patients who underwent liver transplantation in our hospital from December 2008 to December 2021 were collected,including 90 patients with EAD and 266 patients without EAD.Thirty items of baseline data for the 2 groups were compared and analyzed.After grouping in a ratio of 7∶3,univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used in the training set to evaluate the factors related to EAD and construct a nomogram.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,decision curve analysis(DCA),sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,Kappa value and other indicators were used to evaluate the model performance.Results The incidence of EAD after liver transplantation was 24%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative tumor recurrence history(OR=3.15,95%CI:1.28~7.77,P=0.013)and operation time(OR=1.22,95%CI:1.04~1.42,P=0.015)were related to the occurrence of EAD after surgery.After predicting the outcome according to the cut-off point of 0.519 identified by the Youden index,the model performance in the both training set and validation set was acceptable.DCA suggested the model has good clinical applicability.Conclusion The risk factors for EAD after liver transplantation are preoperative tumor recurrence history and operation time,and the established model has predictive effect on prognosis.