新能源汽车推广降低了碳排放吗?——基于空间溢出效应的视角

Does the new energy vehicles adoption reduce carbon emissions?Aperspective of spatial spillover effect

新能源汽车产业是实现交通部门“双碳”目标的关键部分,其脱碳效应引起了广泛的关注和研究。然而,新能源汽车的市场扩散也可能提高电力消耗,将本地的碳排放通过电网“出口”至净输出电力的城市。鉴于此,文中基于2010-2020中国50个城市的面板数据,采用空间计量模型考察新能源汽车推广对碳排放影响。结果表明:新能源汽车推广存在显著的空间溢出效应,当地新能源汽车的推广不仅会降低本地的碳排放,而且降低了临近的城市的碳排放;新能源汽车推广通过替代效应、能源消耗效应和技术效应间接影响碳排放;在拥有更优化的能源结构、开展新能源汽车示范推广试点与电力输入型的城市,新能源汽车推广的脱碳效应更强。文中的结果不仅为实现交通部门脱碳提供了新的理论依据,而且为制定更有效的政策措施提供了经验证据。

The new energy vehicle(NEV)industry is one of key parts to achieve the"double carbon"goal of transportation sector in China,and its decarbonization effect has attracted extensive attention and research.However,the market proliferation of NEVs may also increase electricity consumption,which might transfer the local carbon emissions through the grid to the cities those are the net power exporters.In view of the above,based on the panel data of 50 cities in China from 2010 to 2020,we use a spatial econometric model to investigate the impact of the NEV adoption on carbon emissions.The results show that the NEV adoption has a significant spatial spillover effect.The adoption of local NEVs will not only reduce the local carbon emission,but also reduce the carbon emission of neighboring cities.The NEV adoption indirectly affects carbon emissions through substitution effect,energy consumption effect and technology effect.In the cities that own more optimized energy structure and NEV demonstration and promotion pilots,and are characterized as power-input,the decarbonization effect of NEV adoption is stronger.The results of the study not only provide a new theoretical basis for the realization of transport sector decarbonization,but also provide empirical evidence for the formulation of more effective policy measures.