碳全要素生产率、经济增长与低碳发展分析——基于黄河流域58个地级市的证据

Analysis of carbon total factor productivity,economic growth and low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin

低碳经济转型发展对黄河流域高质量发展具有重要意义。实现经济与环境双赢,需因时、因地制宜。文中采用SBL-ML模型,构建了在社会效益最大化下统筹经济增长与低碳发展的分析框架,基于2010-2019年黄河流域58个地级市人力、资本、能源、碳排放和地区生产总值数据,测度了各地区碳全要素生产率及低碳经济发展倾向。研究发现:1)从区域维度看,2010-2019年黄河流域地级市碳全要素生产率呈现负增长状态,技术进步是推动黄河流域地级市碳全要素生产率增长的主要动力。2)从城市维度看,碳全要素生产率增长最高的10个城市是洛阳市、朔州市、新乡市,西安市、郑州市、榆林市、鹤壁市、太原市、青岛市和烟台市,城市之间碳全要素生产率增长存在明显的地区差异。不同的城市动力源泉也不相同。3)从低碳发展倾向来看,黄河流域整体表现处于初级阶段,大多为经济扩张型和增长倾向型,需进行低碳经济转型。4)从低碳转型协同路径来看,能源消耗和经济水平、能源消耗和人口规模、资产投资和产业结构、人力投入和碳排放量、人力投入和产业结构、碳排放量和产业结构在空间叠加后,对黄河流域碳全要素生产率空间分异格局起主导作用。

The transformation and development of low-carbon economy is of great significance to the high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.To achieve a win-win situation between economy and environment,it is necessary to adapt to the time and local conditions.In this paper,the SBL-ML model is adopted to build a framework for analyzing the coordinating economic growth and low-carbon development under the maximization of social benefits.Based on the human resources,capital,energy,carbon emission and regional GDP data of 58 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin in 2010~2019,the carbon total factor productivity and the development tendency of low-carbon economy in each region are measured.The study shows that:1)From the perspective of regional dimension,the carbon total factor productivity of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin showed a negative growth state in 2010-2019,and technological progress was the main driving force for the growth of the carbon total factor productivity of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin.2)From the perspective of cities,the 10 cities with the highest growth of carbon total factor productivity are Luoyang,Shuozhou,Xinxiang,Xi'an,Zhengzhou,Yulin,Hebi,Taiyuan,Qingdao and Yantai.There are obvious regional differences in the growth of carbon total factor productivity between cities.Different cities also have different power sources.3)From the perspective of low-carbon development tendency,the overall performance of the Yellow River Basin is in the primary stage,most of which are economic expansion and growth tendency,and low-carbon economic transformation needs to be carried out.4)From the point of low carbon transformation collaborative path,the spatial superposition of energy consumption and economic level,energy consumption and population scale,asset investment and industrial structure,manpower investment and carbon emissions,manpower investment and industrial structure,carbon emissions and industrial structure play leading roles in the spatial differentiation pattern of carbon total factor productivity in the Yellow River Basin.