易流态固体散货海运液化风险预测

Risk prediction of liquefiable solid bulk cargoes during sea transportation

为有效控制海运环境下易流态固体散货因液化而导致的船舶倾覆事故风险,基于船舶运动学及波能理论,采用AWQA水动力计算软件,模拟分析全球固体散货海运主力船型在各典型海域航行过程中所遭遇的外界环境载荷,并根据土动力学理论及三轴试验结果对相关外界环境载荷进行货物液化风险的等效分析,在此基础上,构建货物液化风险评估模型。基于风险评估模型及其数值计算样本,采用BP神经网络算法完成货物液化风险快速预测,实现了货物海运液化风险的快速智能预测,并通过模型的权值矩阵及阈值矩阵得到BP快速预测模型的显性表述。运用该预测模型,对4种典型易流态固体散货海运环境下的液化风险进行快速预测,预测结果与评估模型结果具有很好的一致性。该预测模型可基于船型和海况等参数快速、有效预测易流态固体散货海运液化风险,为一线海事监管提供了安全方法,同时对IMSBC规则的发展也起到良好的促进作用。

In order to effectively control the ship capsizing risk caused by liquefaction of liquefiable solid bulk cargo during sea transport,based on ship kinematics and wave energy theo⁃ry,AWQA hydrodynamic analysis software was used to simu⁃late and analyze the external environmental loads encountered by ships while sailing in various typical sea areas,and the e⁃quivalent analysis of the liquefaction risk of the cargo and the related assessment model was carried out according to the the⁃ory of soil dynamics and results of triaxial tests,and on this basis,the risk assessment model for cargo liquefaction was constructed.Based on the risk assessment model and its nu⁃merical calculation samples,a fast prediction model for cargo liquefaction risk was completed by using the BP neural net⁃work algorithm,thereby achieving fast and intelligent predic⁃tion of cargo maritime liquefaction risk,and the explicit ex⁃pression of the BP fast prediction model was obtained by the weight matrix and threshold matrix of the model.The predic⁃tion model was used to quickly predict the liquefaction risk of four typical liquid solid bulk cargo shipping environments,and the prediction results were consistent with the evaluation model results.This prediction model can quickly and effec⁃tively predict the liquefaction risk of liquid solid bulk cargo in marine transportation based on parameters such as ship type and sea conditions,providing a safety method for frontline maritime supervision and promoting the development of IMS⁃BC rules.