俄乌冲突下西方对俄罗斯能源制裁及其应对:实施路径与阶段性效果评估

The Energy Sanctions of Western Countries on Russia and Russia's Response under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict:Implementation Path and Staged Effect Evaluation

俄乌冲突爆发后,俄罗斯能源行业始终是西方精准打击的重点目标。西方力图通过全方位能源制裁,在减少俄用于支持战争的能源出口收入的同时,挤压其在欧洲能源市场的空间,实现化石能源供应“去俄化”。为应对西方制裁,俄开始在“向东看”战略的框架下加快开拓亚洲市场。从制裁及其应对效果看,西方未能实现最重要的预期目标——阻止俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争行为。俄罗斯亦功败输赢兼备,在石油行业,俄基本实现了石油出口市场从欧洲到亚洲的战略转向。但在天然气行业,用亚洲市场取代欧洲市场的目标还远未达成。欧洲在寻求替代油气资源、快速降低对俄能源依赖的同时,也付出了溢价购气和经济衰退的昂贵代价。俄乌冲突已使国际能源市场发生重大调整,俄石油出口转向东方是最近30年来世界石油市场最大规模的贸易流转向,全球能源市场供求关系、运输通道、竞争格局和能源结构将进入深度调整期。

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the Russian energy industry has become a key hit target of Western countries.The Western countries sought to use all-round energy sanctions to reduce Russia's energy export revenue that supports the war,squeeze its dominant position in the European energy market and promote the"derussification"of fossil energy supplies.In response to the sanctions,Russia began to accelerate its expansion into the Asian market under the framework of its"Turn to the East"strategy.Judging from the effects of the sanctions and Russia's response,the West failed to achieve the most important expected goal—to prevent Russia's military operations against Ukraine.There are also good and bad for Russia.In terms of the oil industry,Russia has basically made the strategic shift of its oil export market from Europe to Asia;but in terms of the natural gas industry,the task of replacing the European market with the Asian market is far from complete.Europe is seeking alternative oil and gas resources and thus its dependence on Russian energy is declining rapidly.But it has also paid a high price in premium gas purchases and experienced economic recession.The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused major adjustments in the international energy market.The shift of Russian oil exports to the east is the largest trade flow shift in the world oil market in the past 30 years.The supply and demand relationship,transportation channels,competition pattern and energy structure of the global energy market will enter a period of in-depth adjustment.