《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》与俄对外政策未来走向

The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation and the Future Direction of Russia's Diplomacy

2023年3月俄罗斯发布了普京自2012年入主克里姆林宫10多年来第三版《俄罗斯联邦对外政策构想》。三个版本的《构想》都强调发展与近邻关系,强调国家领土安全与主权安全。前两版《构想》将欧盟、美国视为优先发展的伙伴,2023年版《构想》将欧盟、美国视为侵害俄罗斯国家利益的主要国际力量,但俄罗斯仍然对美欧保持开放务实的合作态度。最新版《构想》中最重要的变化是俄罗斯希望借助亚太地区的多边行为体抗衡美西方,加速整合亚太主要力量,以确保欧亚地区的稳定。以往俄罗斯对外政策布局呈现的是稳中有进、通中有度的特点,以维护国家利益为基础,进攻和防御兼顾,在主要力量之间寻求平衡,实现国家利益最大化。预测未来,由乌克兰危机引发的美西方对俄罗斯持续加码的全方位、多领域制裁使俄罗斯目前无法就应对美西方的政策举措做出更多自我调节,只能暂时通过拉开距离的方式,等待找到修复关系的办法,同时保证国家利益不受侵害。

In March 2023,Russia released the third version of the Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation since 2012 Putin took office in the Kremlin.All the three versions emphasize relations with neighboring countries,as well as territorial security and sovereignty security.However,the first two versions regard the EU and the US as priority of developing partnership whereas the 2023 version regards them as a major international force that infringes on Russia's national interests.In terms of the new Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation,the most important change is that Russia hopes to use multilateral actors in the Asia-Pacific region to counter the US and the West and accelerate the integration of major forces in the Asia-Pacific to ensure stability in the Eurasian region.In the past,Russia's foreign policy layout showed the characteristics of balance of making progress and maintaining stability.To safeguard national interests,Russia took both offense and defense into account and sought a balance among major forces and thus maximized its national interests.Looking into the future,given the all-round and multi-field sanctions against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Russia is currently unable to make efficient adjustment towards the US and the West.It has to temporarily distance itself from them,wait for a new opportunity of relationship repair and protect its own national interests.