美国新中亚战略:转变、动因及实施效果分析

New Central Asia Strategy of the US:Changes,Motivations,and Implementation Effects

特朗普执政后期在战略竞争思想指导下出台了新的中亚战略,其在形式、内容、目标手段等方面都发生了新的变化,是美国在新形势下对中亚地区战略的一次重要调整。拜登政府在多个领域推动该战略进一步完善发展。美国新中亚战略的主要特点是,表现出对中俄指向鲜明的地缘竞争思维和安全利益驱动:与中俄争夺地区三角关系中的比较优势;对冲中国“一带一路”倡议在中亚地区的影响力拓展;防范阿富汗问题的外溢效应。在该战略指引下,美国积极强化在中亚地区的双边和多边战略合作,以“C5+1”小多边机制掀起了美国及其盟友在中亚的“外交热潮”,中美俄在中亚地区的三角关系似乎走向了对美国有利的方向。但该战略实际的执行效果表现出了“目标过高,手段不足”的特点,不仅无益于中亚地区的经济繁荣与稳定,反而加剧了区域紧张局势,不利于地区关系的良性发展。

Trump launched a new Central Asia strategy of the US at the end of his administration with the guidance of strategic competition thinking.The Biden administration has further improved this strategy in multiple fields.Generally,this strategy has new changes in form,content,goals and means,etc.It is an important adjustment of the US'strategy in Central Asia under the new situation.The main motivation of this new strategy is US'security interests and competition thinking against China and Russia:Striving for comparative advantages in the regional triangular relationship;hedging the influence of China's"Belt and Road"initiative in Central Asia;preventing the expansion of the spillover effects of the Afghanistan issue.Under the guidance of this strategy,the US has actively strengthened bilateral and multilateral strategic cooperation in Central Asia,and set off a"diplomatic boom"of the US and its allies in Central Asia through the"C5+1"minilateral mechanism.Hence,the regional triangular relationship seems to be moving in a direction beneficial to the US.However,the actual implementation effect of this strategy shows the characteristics of"too high goals and insufficient means".Not only is it not conducive to the economic prosperity and stability of Central Asia,but it intensifies regional tensions and hurts the healthy development of regional relations.