碳减排与南北经济差距——基于量化空间模型的分析

CO_(2)Emission Reduction and the North-South Economic Gap:An Analysis Based on a Quantitative Spatial Model

中国于2020年联合国大会明确提出争取分别在2030年和2060年前实现碳达峰和碳中和。与此同时,中国发展经济和改善民生的任务艰巨,面临着区域经济发展分化态势明显的新情况和新问题。本文在Caliendo等(2018)构建的具有投入产出联系、人口流动的多地区、多部门一般均衡模型基础上引入二氧化碳排放,探究了碳减排对区域经济差异(包括八大经济区、南北地区经济差距)的影响,以及全国碳交易市场建立在其中的调节作用。研究结果显示,按照目前的生产率增长速度,①若不存在全国性碳交易市场,碳减排会抑制发达地区的经济发展,从而缩小南北经济差距;②碳排放交易市场的建立在通过碳价格一体化实现碳从低效率地区向高效率地区转移,从而提高碳资源配置效率的同时,也会加剧地区间的收入差距问题,南北经济差距增大。因此,在碳减排目标实现的过程中,需要同时结合中央财政转移支付手段以解决区域发展不平衡问题,缩小此过程中伴随增大的南北经济差距。

At the United Nations General Assembly in 2020,Xi Jinping made the official announcement that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.At the same time,China is faced with a daunting task of developing the economy and improving people's livelihood,facing new situations and new problems such as the obvious divergence of regional economic development.In this paper,we construct a multi-regional multi-sector general equilibrium trade model with input-output linkage,labor mobility and CO2 emissions based on Caliendo et al.(2018)to quantify how CO_(2) emissions peak affects regional economic differences and analysis the role of the national carbon trading market.The main findings are as follows:given the current rate of productivity growth,(1)if there is no national carbon trading market,carbon emission reduction will restrain the economic development of developed regions,and narrow the regional economic gap between North and South;(2)if the national carbon trading market was established,carbon resources would be reallocated from low efficiency regions to high efficiency regions.As a result,the efficiency of carbon resource allocation improves,but will also exacerbate the income gap between the North and the South.Therefore,in the process of achieving carbon emission reduction goals,it is necessary to combine central fiscal transfer payments to solve the problem of uneven regional development and reduce the regional economic gap that increases in the process.