摘要
暴雨洪涝事件影响城市交通路网运输性能,增加城市应急通行时间.然而,现有研究主要集中于2h设计雨型下城市交通路网受损过程,对长历时特大暴雨情形则考虑不足.2023年7月,北京地区发生历史罕见的长历时特大暴雨事件,造成严重洪涝灾害.联合利用城市洪涝模型和动态交通路线规划分析,量化评估了特大暴雨事件对北京市通州区居民通过城市路网前往医院、紧急避难场所等地所需通行时间的影响.研究结果表明:(1)特大暴雨事件可使居民前往避险地点时间增加约20min;(2)短时极大雨强与前期足量积水均会显著减缓城市交通系统通行性能恢复速度,放大暴雨洪涝灾害风险.因此,在评估城市洪涝灾害风险时需综合考虑短时降雨强度超限造成的突发性失稳与长时间连续降雨致涝造成的渐进性失稳风险,并据此优化极端暴雨洪涝场景下灾害风险管控与应急资源配置.
Rainstorms can disrupt the normal functioning of urban transportation systems and increase the time needed for emergency responses.While most existing research focuses on the impacts of 2-hour design rainfalls on urban road networks,it often overlooks the possible effects of unprecedented events with long duration and high intensity.In July 2023,a rare heavy rainstorm hit Beijing and caused severe loss.This study combined urban flood modeling with dynamic traffic routing analysis to evaluate the impacts exerted by this event on the travel times of residents in Tongzhou District seeking emergency shelters and hospitals through city roads.The results indicate that:(1)This rare rainstorm event can increase the travel time for most residents by 20 minutes;(2)Both short-term high rainfall intensity and prior excessive rainwater accumulation can significantly slow down the recovery of urban transportation systems and further amplify the rainstorm-induced flood risks.Thus,when analyzing urban flood risks,it is necessary to give comprehensive consideration to both sudden and progressive failures caused by short-term heavy and long-duration rainfall events,respectively.This insight can further inform the enhancement of flood risk management and emergency resource allocation during extreme rainstorm events.
作者
李瑞栋
倪广恒
陆科成
龚傲凡
LI Ruidong;NI Guangheng;LU Kecheng;CONG Aofan(Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 10084,China;The State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期365-377,共13页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3090604)
水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室项目(61010101221)。