国家实力的评估方法:研究脉络与未来展望

Methods of Assessing National Power:Research Context and Future Prospects

国内关于“两步走”战略安排的量化研究出现了文献越来越多、概念越来越多、指标越来越多的情况,以及关联研究较少、脉络研究较少、基本概念研究较少等问题。为此,需要从国家实力的基本概念出发,梳理现有的评估方法,分析未来的研究潮流。研究发现,关于国家实力评估,学术界有两个研究脉络:一个脉络认为,国家实力是国家在国际关系中的支配地位,不是单个国家的固有特性,应当通过战争、贸易制裁等国际争端的“结果”来评估。另一个脉络认为,国家实力是国家的资源占有情况,可以是单个国家的固有特性,应当通过能够影响国际关系的“资源”来评估。研究还发现,关于国家实力评估的研究潮流呈现出三个趋势:一是实力资源化,即用国家占有的资源来衡量国家实力;二是指标减量化,即用尽可能少的指标来衡量国家实力;三是指标净值化,即用剔除成本“损耗”后的净指标衡量国家实力。这些发现,为构建既顺应国际潮流、又符合中国国情的评估指标体系提供了启示。

About national power,there are two kinds of evaluation methods in the academic circle.The root cause is that there are two kinds of concept definition in the theoretical level.Among them,one group holds that national power is the dominant position of a country in international relations,rather than the inherent characteristics of a single country,and should be evaluated through the “results” of international disputes such as wars and trade sanctions.The other view is that national power is a state's possession of resources,which can be an inherent characteristic of a single state and should be evaluated through “resources” that can influence international relations.Looking forward to the future,there are three trends in the research of national power evaluation methods:First,power resource.Measuring national power by the resources a country possesses has become an irresistible temptation for quantitative research.Second,index reduction.Using as few indicators as possible to measure national power has become an inevitable choice for international comparative research.Third,the net value of indicators.The total index focuses on measuring the “big” of national power,while the net index after excluding the “loss” of cost can better measure the “strong” of national power.This provides enlightenment for solving the problem in existing quantitative research,and then for proposing an evaluation system that can not only conform to the international trend,but also tell the story of Chinese modernization well.