双向金融开放与信贷资金配置效率

Two-Way Financial Opening-up and Credit Funds Allocation Efficiency

中国金融开放已步入全面深化阶段,然而在开放速度、福利效应与路线图方面依然存在较大争议。本文运用2001-2019年48个重要经济体的面板数据,考察了双向金融开放(资本流出端开放、资本流入端开放、利率市场化改革)对信贷资金配置效率的非对称影响与传导渠道。实证结果发现:第一,提高资本流出端开放程度对信贷资金配置效率发挥先提升后降低的非线性作用;第二,提高资本流入端开放程度将有效提升各经济体信贷资金配置效率;第三,利率市场化改革对信贷资金配置效率发挥先提升后降低的非线性作用;第四,信贷约束渠道与金融竞争渠道均是双向金融开放影响信贷资金配置效率的主要渠道。进一步的探索发现,经济体类型与金融危机的阶段性划分对信贷资金配置效率发挥异质性驱动作用。本文最重要的政策建议是中国应积极推进双向资本开放,可在加快资本流入端开放的同时对资本流出端开放保持审慎态度,适当加快利率市场化改革进程,积极改善“信贷偏向”的不平等现状。

China has entered the stage of opening up its financial sector in all respects,but there are still a lot of disputes over the speed of opening-up,welfare effects and road maps.Given that China’s financial system is dominated by indirect financing such as banking financing,it is obviously of great significance for China to study the impacts of two-way financial opening-up in other countries on the credit funds allocation efficiency and how.This paper constructs a comparative static general equilibrium model that integrates corporate financing behavior,and discusses driving effects of two-way financial opening-up(capital-outflow/capital-inflow opening,interest rate liberalization)on the allocation efficiency of credit funds.Based on the panel data of 48 economies from 2001 to 2019,the study led to the following conclusions.First,improving the capitaloutflow opening-up degree plays a nonlinear role as it first promoted and then inhibited the allocation efficiency of credit funds.Second,increasing capital-inflow opening-up effectively improves the allocation efficiency of credit funds in all sample economies.Third,interest rate liberalization plays a nonlinear role as it first improved and then restrained the allocation efficiency credit funds.Fourth,credit constraints channels and financial competition channels are the main transmission channels.Further exploration shows that the country type and the stage division of financial crisis have a heterogeneous driving effect on the allocation efficiency of credit funds.Overall,this paper provides new empirical evidence on the welfare effects of two-way financial opening-up at the country level.These conclusions have important policy implications for the further opening-up of China’s financial sector.First,it should actively promote two-way capital opening-up.Since capital-inflow opening only drives up the allocation efficiency of credit funds and in a direct way,it is possible to speed up capitalinflow opening while practicing more prudence in capital-outflow opening,so as to obtain more benefits of capital account liberalization.Second,interest rate liberalization can be appropriately accelerated to actively improve the unequal status quo of“credit bias.”Third,we should actively expand the financing channels of enterprises,remove the barriers hindering flows between countries and regions,and alleviate the financing constraints facing the business sectors.