数字资本积累与产业结构转型:中国1981-2020

Digital Capital Accumulation and the Transformation of the Industrial Structure:A Case Study of the 1981-2020 China

利用数字技术投资推动产业结构转型升级,需要厘清数字资本影响产业结构转型的理论机制与历史经验。本文通过构建一个包含数字资本的多部门一般均衡模型,分析了数字资本积累通过价格效应和收入效应影响产业结构的理论机制。基于此,本文进一步量化分析了数字资本积累对中国1981一2020年产业结构转型的影响。研究发现,数字资本积累使得农业和工业产出比重分别降低了8.27和1.49个百分点,使得服务业产出比重提高了9.75个百分点。其中农业数字资本积累是农业产出比重降低和服务业产出比重提高的主要驱动力,工业数字资本积累是工业产出比重降低的主要驱动力。此外,在数字资本积累对中国产业结构转型的影响中,先是收入效应起主导作用,后是价格效应起主导作用。本文从数字资本积累的视角发展了产业结构转型领域的理论与定量研究,对中国利用数字技术投资推动产业结构转型升级,助力经济高质量发展具有重要参考意义。

With the rapid development of digital technologies such as the Internet,big data and artificial intelligence,the integration of digital economy and traditional industries has become an important force to promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial structure.In order to use the investments in digital technology to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and boost the highquality development of China’s economy,it is necessary to clarify the theoretical mechanism and historical experience of digital capital affecting the transformation of the industrial structure.Therefore,by expanding the theoretical framework of structural transformation,we constructed a multi-sector general equilibrium model including digital capital,and theoretically analyzed the economic mechanism of digital capital accumulation affecting structural transformation through the price effect and the income effect.Then,we used the model framework to calculate China’s digital capital stock and other model variables from 1981 to 2020,calibrated the model parameters,and evaluated the impact of digital capital accumulation on China’s structural transformation from 1981 to 2020 based on counterfactual analysis.The main findings of this paper are as follows.Firstly,digital capital accumulation had a significant impact on China’s structural transformation from 1981 to 2020.Secondly,the accumulation of agricultural digital capital was the main driving force behind the declined proportion of agricultural output and the increased proportion of service output,and the accumulation of industrial digital capital was the main driving force for the declined proportion of manufacturing output.Third,of the impact of digital capital accumulation on China’s structural transformation,the income effect played a dominant role before it was outperformed by the price effect.In other words,the income effect decreased over time while the price effect increased.The main contributions of this paper are as follows.This paper analyzes the impact of digital capital accumulation on China’s structural transformation from both theoretical and quantitative aspects,which not only helps us further understand the source power of China’s structural transformation in the past few decades,but also has important practical significance for China to promote the transformation and upgrading of its industrial structure in the future.Meanwhile,by analyzing the economic mechanism of digital technology influencing structural transformation from the perspective of digital capital accumulation,this paper expands the theoretical research in the field of digital economy and the transformation of the industrial structure.