年龄结构、人口流动与社会养老保险需求研究

Research on the age structure,population mobility and social pension insurance demand

通过构建三期代际交叠模型,使用中国社会状况综合调查(CSS)2017年、2019年微观家庭数据,深入探讨人口流动情况和家庭人口年龄结构影响社会养老保险需求的理论机制,并对二者影响社会养老保险需求的效应进行实证检验.研究表明:(1)人口的流动性特征会降低其对社会养老保险的参保意愿.(2)家庭老年抚养负担越重,对个体参保需求形成的挤占效应越明显,导致个体对社会养老保险的参保意愿降低.相反,若家庭面临的少儿抚养压力较大,个体可能会为了减轻子女未来的养老负担而提高自身的参保意愿.(3)人口的流动性特征和家庭人口年龄结构对居民社会养老保险需求的影响主要通过改变养老保险满意度和异地赡养负担实现.

By constructing a three-generation overlapping model and using micro household data from the China Social Survey(CSS)in 2017 and 2019,this research delves into the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population mobility and family age structure on social pension insurance demand,and conducts empirical testing about the impact effects of the two factors on social pension insurance demand.The results show that:(1)The mobility characteristics of the population will reduce their willingness to participate in social pension insurance.(2)The heavier the burden of elderly care in families,the more significant the crowding out effect on individual insurance needs,leading to a decrease in the willingness to participate in social pension insurance.On the contrary,if the pressure of raising children in a family is greater,they may increase the willingness to participate in insurance in order to reduce their children's burden of elderly care in the future.(3)The impact of population mobility characteristics and family age structure on the demand for social pension insurance is mainly generated by changing the satisfaction of pension insurance and the burden of long-distance support.