面向高质量发展的深圳市新增长分析框架与测度研究

Research on Shenzhen's New Growth Analysis Framework and TFP Measurement Oriented to High-Quality Development

当经济系统发展到一定阶段,其增长动力逐步由要素驱动的数量型向以技术进步、制度变革为主的创新驱动的质量型转变。本文拟搭建深圳市高质量发展的增长分析框架,打开全要素生产率(TFP)“黑箱”,系统重估深圳2006~2020年的生产函数变革,分析各时期的增长源泉并厘清其驱动机制。研究发现:2010年以前资本替代弹性与劳动替代弹性均呈现平稳上升趋势,但2010年后资本替代劳动现象逐渐凸显,规模经济效应也逐步上升;通过拆分TFP结构发现,嵌入型TFP和要素无关型TFP对深圳的经济增长与TFP构成的改善都有一定的借鉴意义;在对深圳市各要素在不同时段的差异探索中发现,科创和基础设施建设在经济增长过程中,起着非常关键的作用。

When the economic system develops to a certain stage,its growth driv-ing forces have been gradually transformed from the quantitative type driven by factors to the qualitative type driven by technological progress,institutional changes,and in-novation.This article attempts to construct a new growth analysis framework for high-quality development of Shenzhen.For this,this article opens the“black box”of total factor productivity(TFP),re-evaluates the changes in Shenzhen's production functions from 2006 to 2020 in a systematical way,analyzes the sources of growth in each period and clarifies its driving mechanisms.It's found in the research that:before 2010,both the elasticity of capital substitution and the elasticity of labor substitution showed a steady upward trend,but after 2010,the phenomenon of capital substitution for labor gradually became obvious,and the economies of scale effect also gradually increased.Further decomposing the TFP analysis,it is found that factor-independent TFP and fac-tor-embedded TFP have played a key supporting role in Shenzhen's TFP improvement and economic growth.In the segmented comparative analysis,it can be found that sci-entific and technological innovation and infrastructure construction continue to play a positive role,while international trade and industrial transformation have greatly differ-ent performances in different periods.