工业智能化对劳动收入的影响——基于随机趋势模型的估计

Impact of Industrial Intelligence on Labor Income—Estimation Based on the Random Trend Model

本文基于构建的2005~2017年省级面板数据,应用随机趋势模型估计了工业智能化对劳动收入的影响。结果表明,当前工业智能化对劳动收入总的影响是稍显正向的,但存在明显的阶段性特征和滞后效应。以2012年为分界点,2005~2011年工业智能化对劳动收入的影响是显著负向的,2012~2017年该影响则是显著正向的;而且工业智能化变量滞后项的估计系数显著。此外,估计结果还表明,由于各地区经济发展水平和工业规模不同以及工业智能化对其他行业的外溢影响不同,工业智能化对劳动收入的影响存在明显的地域差异和行业差异。本文对工业智能化的劳动收入效应及其影响过程的分析为后续相关产业和劳动力市场政策的制定与完善提供了实证参考依据。

The paper estimates the impact of industrial intelligence on labor income using a random trend model based on the constructed provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017.The results show that the overall impact of industrial intelligence on labor income is slightly positive,but there are stage characteristics and lag effect.Taking 2012 as the turning point,the impact of industrial intelligence on labor income is significantly negative from 2005 to 2011,and significantly positive from 2012 to 2017.Moreover,the estimated coefficients of industrial intelligence lag variables are significant.In addition,the estimation results also show that there are obvious regional differences and industrial differences in its impact on labor income due to the different level of economic development and industrial scale in each region,as well as the different spillover effects of industrial intelligence on other industries.The analysis of industrial intelligence's labor income effect and its influencing process in the research provides empirical reference for the subsequent formulation and improvement of relevant industrial and labor market policies.