山区公路下坡路段车辆事故形态分析及设计阶段追尾风险评估

Vehicle Accident Pattern Analysis and Rear-end Collision Risk Assessment at Highway Design Stage on Downhill Section of Mountain Highway

以云南某高速为例,从交通事故车辆类型占比、交通事故形态等方面对山区高速全路段与下坡路段交通事故数据进行分析和对比,结果显示:下坡路段相较于全部统计路段,大型车事故比例增大64.0%,中型车事故比例增大128.9%,小型车事故比例降低93.4%,差别较为明显。下坡路段的设计和管理方面除应重点关注大型车外,还应提升对中型车行驶安全的关注。全路段与下坡路段交通事故数据中,追尾碰撞占比均超过半数。提出基于蒙特卡洛方法的路段坡度及公路运营管理速度快速验证方法,考虑路段坡度、车辆速度、跟车距离、降雨环境下路面附着系数等参数,可在公路设计阶段快速简便地为下坡路段相关设计参数的验证提供辅助,并对车辆追尾碰撞风险进行评估。

Taking the expressway in Yunnan as an example,an analysis and comparison of traffic accident data across the entire expressway and its downhill sections were conducted,focusing on the proportion of vehicle types involved in accidents and accident patterns.The results showed that:in downhill sections,accidents involving large vehicles increased by 64.0%,mediumsized vehicles by 128.9%,while small vehicle accidents decreased by 93.4%,with obvious differences.In the design and management of downhill sections,attention should be paid not only to large vehicles,but also to the driving safety of mediumsized vehicles.Rear-end collisions constituted over half of the accidents in both the entire expressway and downhill sections.A quick verification method using the Monte Carlo method was proposed,considering parameters such as slope gradient,vehicle speed,following distance,and road surface adhesion in rainy conditions.This method offers a rapid and straightforward means to verify downhill section design parameters during the highway design phase and assess the risk of rear-end collisions.