基于理论-经验模型的春玉米产量丰歉动态气象评估

Dynamic Meteorological Assessment of Abundance and Deficiency in Spring Maize Yield Based on Theoretical and Empirical Model

为了在玉米不同生长阶段进行气象要素影响评价和产量丰歉趋势定量评估,利用1983—2018年吉林省50个气象观测站4—9月逐日降水量、气温和风速等资料,以及各县逐年玉米产量资料,基于春玉米生长发育自然节律和模糊数学原理,将吉林省春玉米划分为5个生育阶段,构建基于诸阶段气象要素的理论—经验产量动态评估模型。该模型充分考虑各生育阶段内降水、气温、大风等关键气象要素对产量影响的比重、地域差异、气象要素综合影响及其阶段累加效应,可在每个生育阶段输出预期产量丰歉评估结果。拟合检验和试用显示模型输出结果客观性和实用性较好,评估模型在丰产年和歉收年的输出结果与实际产量拟合更好,后期评估结果比前、中期结果更贴近实际产量;中部半湿润半干旱区和东部冷湿山区的评估效果略好于西部半干旱地区的。

To conduct impact assessment of meteorological elements and quantitative assessment of yield trend at different growth stages of maize,this paper uses the daily precipitation,temperature and wind speed data from April to September in 19832018,which were collected at 50 meteorological stations in Jilin Province,and the yearly maize yield data of each county in the same period in dividing the full growth stage of spring maize in Jilin Province into five stages based on the natural rhythm of growth and development of spring maize and the principle of fuzzy mathematics.A theoretical empirical yield dynamic assessment model based on meteorological elements of these stages is established.The model fully considers the impact proportions of key meteorological elements(precipitation,temperature and wind)on yield in each growth stage,regional differences,comprehensive effects of meteorological elements and their cumulative effects at each growth stage,and can output the assessment results of expected abundance and deficiency of yield at each growth stage.The fitting test and trial show that the output results of the model are more objective and practical.The output results of the evaluation model in high yield and low yield years are more consistent with the actual yield,and the evaluation results for the late stage are much closer to the actual yield than the evaluations for the early and middle stages.The evaluation effect for the central semi-humid and semi-arid area and the eastern cold humid mountainous area is slightly better than that for the western semi-arid area.