化工工艺安全评价指标体系的灰色关联度分析模型优化

Optimization of grey correlation analysis model of chemical process safety evaluation index system

安全评价指标体系承载整个评价对象的安全状态,通过对关键风险因素进行识别,可提高企业的安全级别。化工工艺安全评价指标数据量大、数据维度高、数据稳定性强,存在相近评价指标分级区分不正确的问题,因此有必要提高其安全评价相似指标的系统分辨率。结合化工工艺安全评价指标体系,构建化工工艺安全评价指标体系灰色关联度分析模型,采用“两两对比、遍历求解”的策略对灰色关联度分析模型进行系统优化,提出自适应评价指标数据规模的调节系数ρ值的确定方法,并以水煤浆气化工艺为案例进行实例分析。结果表明:采用灰色关联度分析模型对化工工艺安全评价指标重要性进行分析时,相似评价指标间区分度更大;与原模型相比,优化后的灰色关联度分析模型使系统灰色关联度的分辨率提高了15%,增加了安全评价工作的正确率。该模型对具有相同数据特点的化工工艺安全评价指标体系的确定具有一定参考作用,为更有效地评估化工企业的安全状态提供了新途径。

The safety evaluation index system carries the security status of the entire evaluation object,identifies the key risk factors,and can improve the security level of the enterprise.Chemical safety evaluation indicators have a large amount of data,high data dimension,strong stability,and there is a problem that the classification and differentiation of similar evaluation indicators are incorrect,so it is necessary to improve the system resolution of similar safety evaluation indicators.Combined with the chemical process safety evaluation index system,the grey correlation analysis model of the chemical process safety evaluation index system was constructed,and the grey correlation analysis model was systematically optimized by using the strategy of"two-by-two comparison and ergodic solving",and a method for determining the adjustment coefficient(p)value of adaptive evaluation index data scale was proposed,and empirical analysis was carried out with coal water slurry gasification process as an example.The results are as follows:at first,when the grey correlation analysis model is used for the importance analysis of chemical process safety evaluation indicators,the discrimination between similar evaluation indicators is greater;secondly,through the comparison with the original model,the optimized grey correlation analysis model improves the resolution of system correlation by 15%,which increases the accuracy rate of safety evaluation work.The model has a reference role in determining the chemical safety evaluation index system with the similar data characteristics,and provides a new way for chemical enterprises to more effectively evaluate the safety status.