2023年国内外油气行业发展及2024年展望

Global oil and gas industry in 2023 and outlook for 2024

2023年,全球能源格局深刻调整,绿色低碳转型稳步推进;国际油价波动下跌,天然气价高位回落;油气勘探开发投资保持增长,油气产量继续双增;炼油乙烯产能继续增长,毛利总体下滑;大石油公司重新强化油气上游,降碳和盈利并重;碳减排共识进一步凝聚,碳市场影响力不断增强。中国油气行业立足安全清洁发展,能源行业政策体系加快完善;新型能源体系建设有序推进;成品油和天然气消费恢复向好,“全国一张网”加速完善;油气产储量保持增长,“两深一非”成增储上产新阵地;炼油能力继续小幅增长;大宗石化产品产能呈扩张态势;碳市场建设步伐加快。2024年,预计国际石油市场基本面由紧平衡转为供应过剩,天然气市场延续脆弱平衡,地缘政治紧张局势及外溢影响等将继续推动油气价格大幅波动;能源转型更加理性务实,基于安全效益发展建设能源韧性体系渐成共识。国内经济景气度回升势头向好,将进一步带动能源行业回暖;深化能源体制机制改革、加快建设新型能源体系、保障能源供应安全稳定仍是能源行业的重要使命任务。

In 2023,the global energy pattern profoundly adjusted,and green low-carbon transition steadily facilitated.International oil prices fluctuated and fell,and natural gas prices fell back from a high level.Investment in oil and gas exploration and development maintained growth,and oil and gas production continued to double.Refining and ethylene production capacity continued to grow,and its gross margins declined in genera.Big oil companies re-enforced the upstream of oil and gas,and emphasized both carbon reduction and profitability.The consensus on carbon emission reduction further unified,and the influence of the carbon market continued to increase.China’s oil and gas industry is based on safe and clean development,the energy industry policy system has accelerated its improvement.The construction of a new type of energy system has been boosted orderly.The consumption of refined oil products and natural gas has recovered,and the“one network in the whole country”has been accelerated its perfection.Oil and gas production and reserves have maintained their growth,and“deep water,deep land,and unconventional resources”have become the main areas for increasing reserves and production.Refining capacity continued to grow slightly,and the production capacity of bulk petrochemical products showed an expanding trend.The pace of carbon market construction accelerated,and so on.It is expected that the international oil market fundamentals from tight balance to oversupply,the natural gas market will continue to keep the fragile balance,geopolitical tensions and its spillover effects will continue to promote oil and gas prices fluctuate significantly.Energy transition will be more rational and pragmatic,construction of energy resilience systems based on the development of safety and efficiency has gradually become a consensus.The domestic economy is picking up momentum,which will further drive the energy industry to rebound.Deepening the reform of the energy system and mechanism,accelerating the construction of a new type of energy system,and guaranteeing the security and stability of energy supply are still important tasks of the energy industry in 2024.