老年人养老意愿选择的影响因素分析——基于CLASS2018实证研究

Analysis of the Factors Influencing Aged Population’s Preference for Elderly Care:An Empirical Study Based on CLASS 2018

随着人口老龄化的不断加深,老年人的养老意愿问题备受关注。文章基于CLASS2018数据,采用多分类logistic回归模型,分析老年人养老意愿选择的影响因素,研究发现:在个体特征中,男性和身体健康的老年人更倾向于自我养老,年龄越大的老年人和户口为农业的老年人更愿意选择子女养老,而文化水平较高的老年人更愿意选择社会养老;在家庭因素中,家庭收入较高的倾向于选择社会养老、有配偶的愿意选择自我养老,子女数量越多越容易选择子女养老;在社会福利中,享受基本养老保险的老年人更倾向于选择子女养老、社区提供日托站或托老所服务的老年人,愿意选择社会养老。当前,老年人养老意愿还是以自我养老或者子女养老为主流模式,社会养老缺乏吸引性,因此,应在发展好自我养老和子女养老这种家庭养老模式时,健全基本养老服务制度体系,弥补社会养老的短板,提升社会养老的吸引力,提高其服务质量,打造多类型的老年人养老模式。

With the continuous deepening of population aging,the issue of preference in elderly care among the aged has attracted significant amount of attention.Based on the CLASS 2018 data,this research employs a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze the factors influencing the preference of elderly care among elderly individuals.The study reveals the following findings:Regarding individual characteristics,elderly males and those in good physical health tend to prefer independent elderly care.Older individuals and those with an agricultural household registration are more inclined to choose family-based elderly care,whereas elderly individuals with better educational background tend to opt for society based eldly care.Regarding family factors,those with higher household incomes are more likely to choose society based eldly care,while individuals with spouses are willing to opt for independence.Additionally,elderly individuals with more children are more prone to choose family-based elderly care.In terms of social welfare,elderly individuals who receive basic pension insurance are more inclined to choose society-based elderly care.Likewise,those who have access to community-based day care centers or elderly care institutions are more likely to choose society-based elderly care.Currently,independence and family-based elderly care remain the dominant models among the aged.Society-based elderly care fails in attracting sufficient numbers of elderly population.Therefore,it is necessary to develop and improve the system of basic elderly care services while enhancing the attractiveness and quality of society-based elderly care service in order to create a multifaceted elderly care model.