脊柱手术部位感染的危险因素分析及列线图的建立与验证

Analysis of risk factors for spinal surgical site infections and establishment and validation of a column-line diagram

目的:探讨脊柱手术部位感染(SSI)的相关危险因素,并建立列线图预测模型,为脊柱术后患者伤口管理提供理论依据。方法:①模型建立。回顾性分析2018年1月至2022年8月在遵义医科大学附属医院骨科行脊柱手术后发生手术部位感染的95例患者临床资料,按1∶2比例匹配同期接受脊柱手术后未发生感染的患者186例,共281例患者按2∶1比例分为训练组(n=188)和验证组(n=93)。将是否发生SSI作为结局变量,分别使用单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析脊柱手术患者术后SSI危险因素并建立列线图预测模型。②模型评估。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的曲线下面积(AUC)对模型的区分度进行检验;采用校准曲线评价模型校准度;采用决策曲线(DCA)评价模型的临床价值及其对实际决策的影响。③模型验证。利用验证组数据绘制ROC曲线、校准曲线,进行外部验证。结果:①训练组和验证组的临床特征差异均无统计学意义(均P>0.05)。训练组中单因素及多因素分析结果显示,术中出血量(OR=1.002,95%CI:1.000~1.003)、拔出引流管时间(OR=1.184,95%CI:1.049~1.337)、术后白蛋白质量分数≤30 g/L(OR=22.933,95%CI:1.051~500.498)是脊柱手术患者术后发生感染的危险因素。②训练组与验证组ROC的AUC分别为0.775(95%CI:0.704~0.847)和0.754(95%CI:0.637~0.871),表明该模型有较好的预测效能。校准曲线分析结果显示实际曲线与理想曲线拟合较好,预测概率与实测值基本一致。DCA分析显示,列线图在训练组与验证组有较好的临床获益性。结论:术中出血量、拔出引流管时间、术后白蛋白质量分数≤30 g/L是脊柱手术患者SSI的独立危险因素,列线图模型预测性能较好,可进一步为临床医护人员提供简单有效的评估方式,提高预测准确度。

Objective:To identify risk factors for surgical site infection(SSI)in spinal surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model,providing a basis for post-operative wound management.Methods:To identify risk factors for surgical site infection(SSI)in spinal surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model,providing a basis for post-operative wound management.Results:Key risk factors identified were intraoperative bleeding,time to drain removal,and postoperative albumin≤30 g/L.The ROC AUCs for the training and validation groups were 0.775 and 0.754,respectively.Calibration curve analysis indicated close alignment of predicted and actual probabilities.DCA showed greater clinical utility in the training group.Conclusion:Intraoperative bleeding,drain removal time,and postoperative albumin≤30 g/L are significant risk factors for SSI in spinal surgery.The nomogram model demonstrates good predictive performance,offering an effective tool for clinical evaluation and improving prediction accuracy in postoperative infection risk.