中国网约车服务对道路交通事故的影响研究

Research on impact of ride-hailing services on road traffic crashes in China

为深入探究网约车服务是否直接影响道路交通事故,以及是否通过改变公交车和私家车的使用量而间接影响道路交通事故。基于2005—2017年我国114个城市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法(DID)和逐步法,研究网约车服务对道路交通事故的影响机制。结果表明:网约车服务进入城市导致道路交通事故增加5.6%,这一结论在进行平行趋势和倾向得分匹配(PSM)-DID等稳健性检验后仍然成立;网约车服务显著降低约19.3%公交使用量,从而间接增加0.71%道路交通事故,说明公交使用量发挥中介效应;网约车服务显著增加5%私家车使用量,从而间接增加0.14%道路交通事故,说明私家车使用量发挥中介效应。公交使用量的减少是网约车服务间接增加道路交通事故的重要原因。政府部门应当加强网约车服务的监管,同时,鼓励网约车服务与公共交通协同发展。

To deeply explore whether ride-hailing services directly affect road traffic crashes and whether they indirectly affect road traffic crashes by changing the usage of buses and private cars,based on panel data from 114 cities in China from 2005-2017,the multi-period DID method and the causal steps method are used to estimate the impact mechanism of ride-hailing services on road traffic crashes.The results show that the entry of ride-hailing services increases road traffic crashes by 5.6%,and this conclusion still holds after performing robustness tests such as parallel trend and Propensity Score Matching-DID.Ride-hailing services significantly reduce public transit usage by about 19.3%,thus indirectly increasing road traffic crashes by 0.71%,which indicates that public transit usage plays a mediating effect.Ride-hailing services significantly increase private car usage by 5%,thus indirectly increasing road traffic crashes by 0.14%,which indicates that private car usage plays a mediating effect.The decrease in public transit usage is an important reason why ride-hailing services indirectly increase road traffic crashes.Government departments should strengthen the regulation of ride-hailing services,while encouraging the synergistic development of ride-hailing services and public transit.