从单边主义到实质性多边主义:法国对非军事行动的战略演变分析

From Unilateralism to Substantive Multilateralism——An analysis of the strategic evolution of Fance’s military operations in Africa

冷战后法国对非安全战略的多边化是一种不完全的多边化。在20世纪90年代后法国主导的撒哈拉以南非洲的军事行动中,法国仅在为数不多的情况下短暂地与其他国家分享了决策指挥权。合法性逻辑、成本-收益逻辑和权力逻辑共同影响了法国对非安全战略的多边化程度。为了维系法国在法语非洲的主导地位,以及避开实质多边所需要的漫长的共识构建和政策协调,当东道国明确支持法国的干涉以及法国认为威胁是短期时,法国会采取名义上的多边主义战略,即寻求国际组织授权但独自开展军事干涉。随着东道国反法情绪的攀升以及法国对萨赫勒地区威胁认知的改变,马克龙政府转向了实质性的多边主义战略,试图以与其他国家分享指挥决策权的方式继续维持在法语非洲的军事存在。但由于如今中西非反法亲俄趋势明显、欧洲国家不再追随法国的对非安全战略以及其他大国加入对非军援竞争,马克龙政府战略调整的效果十分有限。

After the Cold War,France’s multilateralization of its security strategy in Africa has been an incomplete multilateralization.In the military operations led by France in Sub-Saharan Africa after the 1990s,France only briefly shared the authority of command and decision-making with other countries on a limited number of occasions.The legitimacy logic,cost-benefit logic,and power logic all jointly influence the extent of multilateralization in France’s security strategy in Africa.In order to maintain its preponderance over French-speaking Africa,and to avoid the time-consuming process of consensus building and policy coordination required by full multilateralism,France would opt for nominal multilateralism,which means obtaining the authorization of international organizations but implementing the military operation alone,on the condition that the host country explicitly supports French intervention and France perceives the threat to be short-term.With the surge of anti-French sentiments and the change of French perception of threats in Sahel,Macron Government reverted to substantive multilateral strategy,trying to maintain its military presence in French-speaking Africa by sharing command and decision-making power with other countries.However,due to the obvious anti-French and pro-Russian trend in Central and West Africa today,the reluctance of European countries to follow France’s security strategy in Africa and the entrance of other major powers into the competition for military aid to Africa,the effectiveness of strategic adjustments made by Macron-administration has proven to be quite limited.