内外生增长作用下中国城市群的人口负增长风险及其异质性

Risk Analysis and Heterogeneity of Negative Population Growth in China's Urban Agglomerations under the Effect of Endogenous and Exogenous Growth

以中国19个城市群所含城市为研究对象,采用第七次人口普查资料等数据,优化模糊逻辑方法,借助ArcGIS和MATLAB平台构建人口流动复杂网络,以人口流动强度表征外生增长,以户籍人口生育率表征内生增长,以儿童比例、老龄化率、平均家庭规模、人口密度、性别比5个指标构建人口负增长评价指标体系,用模糊逻辑方法测算人口负增长风险指数,进而用空间回归方法对城市群人口负增长风险的增长机制进行分析。结果表明:1)中国内地城市群的人口负增长风险平均值为0.48,流出型城市的人口负增长风险较流入型城市高。2)提升型城市群人口负增长风险受外生增长(人口流动引起的增长)和内生增长(由户籍生育率引起的增长)作用的共同影响,外生增长的影响更大。壮大型城市群人口负增长风险的动力机制是外生增长,培育型城市群人口负增长风险的动力机制是内生增长。3)根据中国城市群人口负增长风险及其影响因素,19个城市群的人口负增长风险及其机制可以划分为8个类型。综上,文章认为提升型城市群应以注重人口空间均衡,壮大型城市群应充分发挥大城市对人口的“截流”作用,培育型城市群应进行人力“固本”。

China is currently entering a stage of high-quality development,with urban development and governance facing systematic reconstruction of internal and external conditions,showing clear differences and the complex superposition of multi-stage development.The steady progress of urbanization has facilitated significant changes in the population structure of Chinese cities.It is expected that the population and industries will further converge to urban agglomerations and big cities,indicating basic multicenter and network patterns.Therefore,analyzing the negative population growth risks of urban agglomerations at different development stages is crucial.This study examined the cities of 19 urban agglomerations in China by adopting the data of the seventh population census,employing the optimized fuzzy logic method,building a complex network of population flow with ArcGIS and MATLAB platforms,and using the intensity of population flow and the registered population fertility rate to represent exogenous and endogenous growth,respectively.The negative population growth evaluation index system was constructed with five indicators:child ratio,aging rate,average family size,population density,and sex ratio.The risk index of negative population growth was measured using the fuzzy logic method,and the growth mechanism of negative population growth risk in urban agglomerations in China was analyzed using the spatial measurement method.(1)The negative population growth risk of growing urban agglomerations was influenced by both exogenous and endogenous growth,with exogenous growth having a greater impact.(2)The dynamic mechanism of negative population growth risk in large urban agglomerations is exogenous growth,whereas that of nurturing urban agglomerations is endogenous growth.(3)According to the risk of negative population growth in China's urban agglomerations and its influencing factors,negative population growth in 19 urban agglomerations can be divided into eight types.1)The state of population growth of expanding urban agglomerations can be divided into two types,with the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations as one type;the capital city has a low risk of negative population growth,while other cities have a high risk of negative population growth.The Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city clusters are the same,with the capital and other cities having a relatively low risk of negative population growth.2)The status of large urban agglomerations can be divided into two types:Shandong Peninsula,Central Plains,Guanzhong Plain,and Beibu Gulf urban agglomerations.The capital city has a low risk of negative population growth,whereas other cities have a high risk of negative population growth.The risk of negative population growth in capital cities and other cities is relatively low.3)The state of population growth of cultivated urban agglomerations can be divided into four types:the Harbin and Changsha urban agglomerations and the central and southern Liaoning urban agglomerations,which have a high risk of negative population growth.Meanwhile,the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain City cluster and the Hubao Eyu City cluster have low risk of negative population growth.The risk of negative population growth is low in the provincial capital city and high in the other cities,while endogenous growth is positive in the provincial capital city and negative in the other cities.In the Jinzhong City,Central Guizhou City,and Central Yunnan City groups,the risk of negative population growth is low in provincial cities and high in other cities.Endogenous growth shows that the capital city and other cities have positive growth.In conclusion,this study posits that upgrading urban agglomerations should consider the spatial balance of population distribution,large urban agglomerations should fulfill their role in"blocking the flow"of big cities,and nurturing urban agglomerations should"consolidate human capital."This study presents a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the negative population growth risk and its impact mechanisms in different development stages of urban agglomerations.This can provide a decision-making reference for the formulation of scientific and reasonable population and economic policies in various urban agglomerations and plays a significant role for maintaining a long-term stable population,economy,and social growth in the region.