复杂系统可靠性

Complex system reliability

随着科学技术的发展,社会技术系统的体系化、网络化、智能化程度逐渐加深,形成系统的复杂性。这些复杂系统的“故障”,诸如交通拥堵、谣言传播、金融崩溃,可以看作是一种“1+1<2”的系统能力负向涌现,难以直接通过系统单元的还原解析来理解,这对原有可靠性理论提出了挑战。现有复杂系统可靠性的研究主要从故障规律展开,从两个角度出发进行,一是考虑故障传播的系统脆弱性研究;二是考虑故障恢复的系统适应性研究。系统脆弱性研究的重点在于挖掘系统崩溃的内在机理,即故障的传播机理。系统适应性研究的重点关注于系统适应恢复能力,包括系统故障恢复机理。在此基础上,本文介绍了相关的可靠性方法研究。

With the development of science and technology,the systematization,networking and intelligentization of the social technology system gradually deepen,forming the complexity of the system.The failures of these complex systems,such as traffic jams,rumor spreading,and financial collapse,can be regarded as a kind of"1+1<2"negative emergence of system capability,which is difficult to understand directly through the reduction analysis of system components.It challenges the classical reliability theory.Research on the complex systems reliability mainly focuses on failures laws,which includes two perspectives.One is the study of system vulnerability considering failure propagation.The other is the study of system adaptability considering failure recovery.System vulnerability studies focus on exploring the internal mechanism of system collapse,namely the failure propagation mechanism.System adaptability studies focus on the capacity to adapt and recover,including the system failure recovery mechanism.Based on this,the article introduces relevant research on reliability method.