基于MaxEnt模型预测伯乐树生境适宜性评价

Evaluation of Predicting Habitat Suitability of Bretschneidera Sinensis Based on MaxEnt Model

该研究旨在预测伯乐树的适宜分布区并识别主导其分布的环境变量,为保护伯乐树资源提供理论依据。该研究使用ENMTools筛选出126个伯乐树分布点数据。应用MaxEnt模型,模拟4种环境变量组合,气候变量,气候和土壤变量,气候、土壤和紫外变量及气候、土壤、紫外和地形综合变量。通过比较这4种模型的准确性和可靠性,探讨影响伯乐树分布的主要环境变量。基于4组环境变量的MaxEnt模型,AUC值训练集分别为0.973±0.001、0.973±0.001、0.975±0.001、0.977±0.001。结果表明,4类综合环境变量模拟模型最为稳定和可靠。伯乐树地理分布主要由气候(日温度平均范围、最干季度平均温度、最干月降水量)、土壤(基本饱和度、土壤有效水含量)、紫外(紫外线的季节性变化、紫外线最弱月份平均辐射量)、地形(高程)等4类综合环境变量影响。伯乐树的地理分布格局受多种环境因素的综合影响。4类环境变量模拟的结果更准确地反映了伯乐树的适宜分布区。该研究可为伯乐树遗传资源收集和种质资源保护提供重要的数据支持。

The purpose of this study is to predict the suitable distribution areas of Bretschneidera sinensis based on MaxEnt model and identify the environmental variables that dominate its distribution,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of Bretschneidera sinensis resources.In this study,the data of 126 Bretschneidera sinensis distribution sites were screened by ENMTools.The MaxEnt model was used to simulate four combinations of environmental variables:climate and soil variables,climate,soil and ultraviolet variables,as well as climate,soil,ultraviolet and topographic variables.By comparing the precision and reliability of the four models,the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Bretschneidera sinensis were discussed.Based on the MaxEnt model for four groups of environmental variables,the AUC value training sets are 0.973±0.001,0.973±0.001,0.975±0.001 and 0.977±0.001 respectively.These findings indicate that the model integrating all four types of environmental variables is the most stable and reliable.The geographical distribution of Bretschneidera sinensis is mainly affected by four kinds of comprehensive environmental variables,including air temperature,precipitation,soil,and ultraviolet and topography.The geographical distribution pattern of Bretschneidera sinensis is affected by a variety of environmental factors.The simulation results of four kinds of environmental variables more accurately reflect the suitable distribution area of Bretschneidera sinensis.The findings of this study provide important data support for the collection of genetic resources and protection of germplasm resources.