经济自由与实际汇率升值:来自102个经济体的经验证据

Economic Freedom and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation:Empirical Evidence from 102 Economies

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森理论是实际汇率决定的经典理论。该理论及其大部分拓展研究都建立在市场完全竞争的假定条件下。然而这一假定与现实存在明显的差异。基于1996—2019年102个经济体的面板数据,实证考察经济自由对实际汇率升值的影响。基准回归结果表明,经济自由程度的增加会导致实际汇率升值。稳健性检验与内生性检验后结果依然成立。机制分析表明,经济自由程度的提高可以通过可贸易品部门的生产率渠道推动实际汇率升值。党的二十大报告指出,中国将稳步推动高标准市场体系的构建,要完善市场经济基础制度和扩大规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放。研究为宏观经济研究者与政策制定者理解制度因素(自由经济制度)与实际汇率变动间的关系提供了经验证据。

The Balassa-Samuelson theory is the classic theory of real exchange rate determination.The theory and most of its extended studies are based on the assumption of perfect competition in the market.However,there is an apparent discrepancy between this assumption and the reality.Based on the panel data of 102 economies from 1996 to 2019,this study empirically examines the impact of economic freedom on real exchange rate appreciation.Benchmark regression results show that the increase of economic freedom leads to real exchange rate appreciation.The above conclusion still holds after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests.Mechanism analysis suggests that the improvement of economic freedom promotes higher productivity in the tradable sector,leading to real exchange rate appreciation.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that China will steadily promote the construction of a high-standard market system,improve the basic system of the market economy andChina?will steadily expand institutional opening up with regard to rules,regulations,management,and standards.This study provides empirical evidence for macroeconomic researchers and policymakers to understand the relationship between institutional factors(free economy system)and real exchange rate movements.