A Novel Method for Forecasting Freak Wave Occurrence in A Short Crested Coastal Sea

In order to forecast the distribution of crest amplitudes and the occurrence of freak waves in a short crested coastal sea,a novel transformed linear simulation method is initially proposed in this paper.A Hermite transformation model expressed as a monotonic cubic polynomial serves as the foundation for the novel simulation technique.The wave crest amplitude exceedance probabilities of two sea states-one with a directional wave spectrum based on the measured wave elevation data at the Yura coast and the other with a typical directional JONSWAP wave spectrum-have been predicted using the novel simulation method that has been proposed.The likelihood that a particular critical wave crest amplitude will be exceeded is directly correlated with the probability that freak waves will occur.It is shown that the novel simulation approach suggested can provide predictions that are more precise than those obtained from the Rayleigh crest amplitude distribution model,the Jahns and Wheeler crest amplitude distribution model,or the conventional linear simulation method.This study also demonstrated that the nonlinear simulation method is less effective than the novel simulation method in terms of efficiency.