数字经济与农业经济韧性:基于中介效应的机制研究

Digital Economy and Agricultural Economic Resilience:A Mechanism Research Based on Mediating Effect

提升农业经济韧性是实现农业现代化与建设农业强国的重要举措,数字经济为农业经济韧性的提升提供了新路径。文章基于2012-2021年中国30个省区市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,分析数字经济对农业经济韧性的直接影响,并利用因果效应法与Bootstrap研究方法分析创新能力在此影响过程中充当的中介作用。研究结果表明:数字经济发展能够显著促进农业经济韧性的提高;进一步研究发现,创新能力在数字经济影响农业经济韧性过程中发挥部分中介作用,数字经济对农业经济韧性的影响存在明显区域差异,对东部地区农业经济韧性赋能效果显著高于中西部地区。基于此,文章提出加强数字经济建设,增强农业经济韧性,提升创新赋能农业经济发展的作用以及实施地区差异化发展政策等建议。

Improving the resilience of agricultural economy is an important step to realize agricultural modernization and build up China's strength in agriculture.Digital economy provides a new way to improve the resilience of agricultural economy.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2012 to 2021,this paper uses a two-way fixed effect model to analyze the direct impact of digital economy on the resilience of agricultural economy,and uses the causal effect and Bootstrap methods to analyze the mediating role of innovation capability in this process.The results show that the development of digital economy can significantly improve the resilience of agricultural economy.Further study shows that innovation capability plays a partial mediating role in the process of digital economy affecting agricultural economic resilience.The study of regional heterogeneity shows that there are obvious regional differences in the impact of digital economy on the resilience of agricultural economy,and the effect on the resilience of agricultural economy in eastern China is significantly higher than that in central and western China.On this basis,some suggestions are put forward,including strengthening the construction of digital economy,enhancing the resilience of agricultural economy,improving the role of innovation in empowering agricultural economic development,and implementing regional differentiated development policies.