国家中心城市人口协同发展模式及效能类型探究——基于七次全国人口普查数据的分析

A Study on the Coordinated Development Model and Efficiency Types of Population in National Central Cities:Analysis Based on Data from Seven National Population Censuses

基于协同理论的分析框架,在七次全国人口普查数据的基础上,采用改进引力模型、社会网络分析方法,从关系协同、地位协同和圈层协同的视角对城市群人口协同发展与国家中心城市效能类型的关系进行研究,发现竞合力、主导力和聚合力共同构成城市群人口高效协同的三维支撑体系。非中心城市的竞合力是城市群提升人口潜力的关键。尽管国家中心城市在城市群人口系统从旧结构向新结构演化的过程中发挥着决定性作用,但京津冀、长三角、珠三角城市群的其他城市对国家中心城市的人口引力作用相对更强,非中心城市对城市群活力的影响值得重视。中心城市的主导力是城市群实现人口跃迁的关键。国家中心城市在城市群发展过程中的集聚作用突出且呈现持续增强态势,在从弱主导走向强主导的演化过程中,国家中心城市经济实力是其重要支撑。城市网络的聚合力是城市群优化人口格局的关键。在与城市群其他城市之间的圈层关系中,国家中心城市保持较高的子群内部密度、形成稳定的凝聚态势是城市群辐射能力的重要体现。基于“三力”研究,建议“任务面向型”城市积极引导产业和人口有序分流、避免人口过度集中,提升城市群人口发展的协同效能;“成长面向型”城市加快培育非中心城市的发展能力,提升城市群整体的伺服效能;“关系面向型”城市加强与其他中心城市之间的分工协作,改善城市群整体的自组织机制效能。

Based on the analysis framework of collaborative theory and the data from seven national population censuses,an improved gravity model and social network analysis method were adopted to study the relationship between population collaborative development in urban agglomerations and the efficiency types of national central cities from the perspectives of relationship synergy,status synergy,and circle synergy.It was found that competitive force,dominant force,and aggregation force jointly constitute the three-dimensional support system for efficient population collaboration in urban agglomerations.The competition among non central cities is the key to enhancing the population potential of urban agglomerations.Although national central cities play a decisive role in the evolution of the population system from the old structure to the new structure in urban agglomerations,other cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations have a relatively stronger population attraction to national central cities,and the impact of non central cities on the vitality of urban agglomerations deserves attention.The dominant force of central cities is the key to achieving population migration in urban agglomerations.The agglomeration role of national central cities in the development of urban agglomerations is prominent and continues to increase.In the process of population evolution from weak dominance to strong dominance,the economic strength of national central cities is an important support.The aggregation power of urban networks is the key to optimizing the population pattern of urban agglomerations.In the hierarchical relationships between national central cities and other cities in urban agglomerations,maintaining a high density of sub clusters and forming a stable cohesive state is an important manifestation of the radiation ability of urban agglomerations.Based on the research of"three forces",it is proposed that"task oriented"urban development should actively guide the orderly flow of industries and population,avoid excessive population concentration,and enhance the synergistic efficiency of population development in urban agglomerations;"growth oriented"cities should accelerate the cultivation of non central city development capabilities and enhance the overall servo efficiency of urban agglomerations;"relationship oriented"cities should strengthen their division of labor and cooperation with other central cities,and improve the overall self-organizing mechanism efficiency of urban agglomerations.