中国对RCEP国家数字服务贸易的出口潜力探究

Exploration on the Export Potential of China’s Digital Service Trade to RCEP Countries

文章基于OECD数据库中的数字服务贸易数据,采用随机前沿引力模型及非效率模型研究了2005—2019年间中国出口RCEP成员国的数字服务贸易潜力以及影响因素。研究发现:中国与贸易伙伴的经济规模、中国人口规模,以及是“一带一路”国家等变量均有利于中国数字服务贸易的出口,贸易伙伴国家的人口规模则不利于中国数字服务贸易的出口,而距离对服务贸易的影响并不显著。贸易伙伴的知识保护水平、互联网发展水平、关税自由度、财政自由、金融自由度,以及政府支出均有利于降低贸易非效率项,而商业自由度的提升则会对贸易效率水平有显著的阻碍作用。从实际贸易额来看,当前我国对RCEP中发达国家的数字出口潜力整体大于发展中国家,但对于泰国、印度尼西亚和马来西亚的出口也存在较大的贸易潜力。因此当前中国的数字服务贸易需要积极实施市场多元化战略,关注出口国的基础设施和知识产权法的现行施行水平,打通与贸易伙伴国的数据共享和系统共认渠道,不断提升RCEP框架下的贸易红利。

The article is based on digital service trade data from the OECD BaTIS database,and uses stochastic frontier gravity model and non efficiency model to study the digital service trade potential and influencing factors of China’s exports to RCEP member countries from 2005 to 2019.The research finds that the economic scale between China and its trading partners,the size of China’s population and its status as a“the Belt and Road”country are all conducive to China’s export of digital services trade.The population size of trading partner countries is not conducive to China’s digital service trade exports,and the impact of distance on service trade is not significant.The level of knowledge protection,internet development,tariff freedom,fiscal freedom,financial freedom,and government expenditure of trading partners are all conducive to reducing non efficiency items in trade,while the improvement of commercial freedom will have a significant hindrance to the level of trade efficiency.From the perspective of actual trade volume,China’s digital export potential to developed countries in RCEP is generally greater than that of underdeveloped countries,but there is also significant trade potential for exports to Thailand,Indonesia,and Malaysia.Therefore,China’s current digital service trade needs to actively implement a market diversification strategy,pay attention to the infrastructure of exporting countries and the current implementation level of intellectual property laws,open up channels for data sharing and system co-recognition with trading partners,and continuously improve trade profits under the RCEP framework.