2023年中国谷子高粱市场分析与2024年展望

Analysis of China's Foxtail Millet and Sorghum Market in 2023 and Outlook in 2024

2023年,在同期粮食作物种植替代、极端天气频现、国际形势趋紧以及突发事件迭出等多因素叠加影响下,中国谷子糜子种植面积小幅下滑,高粱面积略有增加。全年来看,受市场供强需弱与风险预期影响,谷子、高粱价格波动频繁;谷子出口激增,高粱进口放缓;谷子高粱种业科技创新活力逐步增强,品种迭代逐步升级。预计2024年国内谷子高粱市场风险与机遇将持续共存,供需双增,但增幅有限;国内谷子市场新陈粮持续叠加,市场供应压力将进一步增加;受全球供应链不确定性以及高进口依存度影响,国际高粱价格存在较大波动风险,国内高粱有望继续扩种。基于此,建议进一步保障产业安全健康可持续发展、强化监测预警、完善政策扶持体系、建立现代产品销售体系,激发产业竞争活力。

In 2023,under the influence of multiple factors such as substitution of grain crops,frequent extreme weather,tightening international situation and frequent emergencies,the planting area of foxtail millet and proso millet declined slightly,and the area of sorghum increased slightly.Throughout the year,due to the strong market supply and weak demand and risk expectations,the price fluctuated frequently;foxtail millet exports surged and sorghum imports slowed;the scientific and technological innovation vitality of foxtail millet and sorghum seed industry is gradually enhanced,and the variety iteration is gradually upgraded.It was expected that the risks and opportunities of the domestic foxtail millet and sorghum market will continue to coexist in 2024,with a double increase in supply and demand,but the increase is limited;the new and old grain in the domestic foxtail millet market continues to superposition,and the market supply pressure will further increase;affected by global supply chain uncertainty and high import dependence,international sorghum prices are at great risk of volatility,and domestic sorghum is expected to continue to expand.Based on this,it was suggested to further ensure the safe,healthy and sustainable development of the industry,strengthen monitoring and early warning,improve the policy support system,establish a modern product sales system,and stimulate the vitality of industrial competition.