基于系统动力学的交通领域氢能需求预测

Prediction of hydrogen demand in transportation field based on system dynamics

为预测“双碳”目标下氢能的需求,充分挖掘与氢能需求相关的影响因素,构建了基于系统动力学的交通领域氢能需求预测系统。绘制了交通领域氢能需求预测系统的因果关系图和系统流图,重点考虑公共汽车、重型卡车和家用汽车的氢能替代,通过历史数据检验模型的有效性,以新疆地区为例,设置低速、中速、高速3个发展水平来分析政策支持和经济投入对交通领域氢能需求的影响。模拟结果表明,交通领域的转型在2030年前发展得较为缓慢,政策和经济投资的影响在之后会逐渐明显,发展水平越高各类交通工具的增长幅度会越来越大,至2050年高速发展水平下的平均氢能替代率会达到低速发展水平下的2.2倍,高速发展水平下的售氢回报会达到低速发展水平下的2.5倍。

In order to predict the hydrogen demand under the“double carbon”target,by fully excavating the influence factors related to the hydrogen demand,the prediction system of hydrogen demand in the transportation field based on system dynamics is constructed.The causality diagram and system flow diagram of the hydrogen demand prediction system in the transportation field are drawn,focusing on the hydrogen energy substitution of buses,heavy trucks and household cars.The validity of the model is tested by historical data.Taking Xinjiang as an example,three development levels of low speed,medium speed and high speed are set to analyze the impact of policy support and economic input on the hydrogen demand in the transportation field.Simulative results show that the transformation of the transportation field is relatively slow before 2030.The impact of policy and economic investment is gradually obvious,and the higher development levels,the larger the growth rate of various types of transportation vehicles.By 2050,the average hydrogen energy substitution rate at the high-speed development level will reach 2.2 times that at the lowspeed development level,and the return on hydrogen sales will reach 2.5 times that at the low-speed development level.