安徽省工业发展与碳排放的EKC曲线模型分析及其影响因素研究

EKC curve model analysis and influencing factors of industrial development and carbon emissions in Anhui Province

“双碳”战略背景下,发展绿色低碳经济是大势所趋。文章运用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型以及回归分析,对安徽省2004年至2021年期间工业GDP与工业碳排放之间的关系以及安徽省工业碳排放的影响因素进行研究分析。结果得出:(1)安徽省工业GDP与工业碳排放之间存在倒U型曲线关系,即随着工业的发展,碳排放将呈现先增加再降低的趋势,即在一定阶段后,工业经济增长可以实现碳排放的减少;(2)能源消费结构的改善以及能源加工转换效率的提高对安徽省工业碳排放的降低均有着显著的正向影响。通过研究为安徽省工业的绿色发展提供了一定的理论指导。

Under the background of"double carbon"strategy,the development of green low-carbon economy is the general trend.This paper uses the environmental Kuznets curve model and regression analysis to study and analyze the relationship be-tween industrial GDP and industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2021 and the influencing factors of indus-trial carbon emissions in Anhui Province.The results are as follows;(1)There is an inverted U curve relationship between indus-trial GDP and industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province,that is,with the development of industry,carbon emissions show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,in other words,after a certain stage,industrial economic growth can reduce carbon emissions;(2)The improvement of energy consumption structure and the improvement of energy processing conversion efficiency have a significant positive impact on the reduction of industrial carbon emissions in Anhui Province.The research pro-vides some theoretical guidance for the green development of industry in Anhui Province.