基于SVAR模型的公路交通建设与经济发展互动关系研究——以天津市为例

Interactive relationship between highway construction and economic development based on SVAR model:a case study of Tianjin

围绕天津市公路交通建设与经济发展的内生互动关系,本研究以1991—2020年数据为样本,从需求和供给两个方面量化天津市公路交通建设的特征,运用熵值法测算公路交通建设评价指标。通过构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解对公路交通建设和经济发展之间的相互关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明,天津市公路交通建设与产业结构优化之间存在正向关系,其中,公路交通建设对产业结构优化的正向影响程度超过产业结构优化对公路交通建设的正向影响程度;天津市公路交通建设对财政收入水平的影响具有时滞作用,并有较长的持续性。与此同时,财政收入水平与地区经济发展水平对公路交通建设的影响则较为微弱。根据研究结论提出了促进公路交通建设、产业结构优化等建议。

Focusing on the endogenous interaction between highway construction and economic development in Tianjin,this paper takes the data from 1991 to 2020 as samples,quantifies the characteristics of highway construction in Tianjin from the aspects of demand and supply,and measures the evaluation index of highway construction with entropy method.It constructs the structure vector autoregressive(SVAR)model and makes an empirical study of the relationship between highway construction and economic development using impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results show that there is a positive relationship between highway construction and industrial structure optimization in Tianjin,and the positive effect of highway construction on industrial structure optimization is greater than that of industrial structure optimization on highway construction.Highway construction has a time-lag and long-lasting effect on the level of fiscal revenue in Tianjin.At the same time,the effect of fiscal revenue and regional economic development on highway traffic construction is weak.Based on the conclusions,the paper suggests promoting highway construction and optimizing industrial structure.