需求不确定条件下的综合客运枢纽布局

The Layout of Integrated Passenger Transportation Hubs under Demand Uncertainty

针对综合客运枢纽的布局问题,考虑不确定条件对枢纽布局的影响,实现各交通方式间的有效衔接。以整个系统运输成本最小化为目标,应用不确定理论,构建不确定条件下的枢纽布局数学模型。模型考虑了客流的不确定性、综合客运枢纽建设成本的不确定性以及需求点坐标的不确定性,以Python随机生成的A、B数据集为例,并进行求解,对参数灵敏度进行分析,得出枢纽布局的最优方案,验证模型与算法的有效性。各参数与运输成本呈正相关,将不确定条件下的枢纽布局模型计算结果与确定性模型进行比较,发现前者更具有优越性。研究成果对未来综合客运枢纽的规划及设计工作提供了一定的借鉴意义。

To address the layout of integrated passenger transportation hubs,the influence of and uncertainty conditions on the hub layout is considered to achieve an effective connection between various modes of transportation.The mathematical model of hub layout under uncertainty conditions is constructed by applying uncertainty theory with the objective of minimizing the transportation cost of the whole system.The model takes into account the uncertainty of passenger flow,the uncertainty of passenger hub construction cost and the uncertainty of demand point coordinates.Using the randomly generated A and B data sets in Python as examples,the model is solved and the sensitivity of parameters is analyzed to derive the optimal solution for the hub layout and to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.The parameters are positively correlated with transport costs,and the calculated results of the hub layout model under uncertainty are compared with the deterministic model,with the former being superior.The model provides some implications for the planning and design of future integrated passenger hubs.