基于ESDA的中国高技能人才空间集聚格局及历史演化

The Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Historical Evolution of China’sHigh-skilled Talents Based on ESDA

依据空间经济学理论,使用《中国劳动统计年鉴》数据,采用ESDA统计方法探索中国高技能人才的空间集聚格局及历史演化。研究发现:2004至2021年,我国高技能人才规模处于增长态势,高技能人才数量增长38.02%;高技能人才集中于东部地区且数量呈上升趋势,中西部地区高技能人才占比下降6.03%,东北地区高技能人才占比下降但总体较平稳;高技能人才空间分布呈“东南密、西北疏”的“核心-边缘”格局;从时间演化趋势看,高技能人才空间格局呈反向演化态势;高技能人才集聚的空间自相关程度增强,集聚模式以高-高和低-低集聚为主。对照区域经济高质量发展的需求,高技能人才的空间格局需优化,建议可采用差异化的区域人才政策,促进高技能人才与制造业的合理布局,促进区域人才链与产业链的有机融合。

Based on the theory of spatial economics,using the data from the China Labor Statistics Yearbook and the ESDA statistical method,this study explores the spatial agglomeration pattern and historical evolution of high-skilled talents in China.From 2004 to 2021,the scale of high-skilled talents in China was on the rise,with a 38.02%increase in the number of high-skilled talents.High-skilled talents are concentrated in the eastern region and the number is on the rise.The proportion of high-skilled talents in the central and western regions has decreased by 6.03%while the proportion of high skilled talents in the northeast region has decreased but remained relatively stable overall.The spatial distribution of high-skilled talents presents a“core periphery”pattern of“dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest”.From the perspective of time evolution trend,the spatial pattern of high skilled talents shows a reverse evolution trend.The spatial auto correlation degree of the agglomeration of high skilled talents has increased and the agglomeration mode is mainly high high and low low agglomeration.Compared to the demand for high-quality development of regional economy,the spatial pattern of high-skilled talents needs to be optimized.It is suggested to adopt differentiated regional talent policies to promote the rational layout of high skilled talents and manufacturing industry and the organic integration of regional talent chains and industrial chains.