滇中地区社会-生态-水资源系统耦合协调发展评价

Coupling and Coordinated Development Evaluation of Society-Ecology-Water Resources System in Central Yunnan

探讨滇中地区社会、生态与水资源三者的耦合协调关系,对滇中地区及云南的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于能值分析与二元水资源可持续发展理论构建区域社会-生态-水资源系统能值评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型探讨2006—2020年滇中地区系统发展指数及耦合协调度。结果表明:近15 a来,滇中地区社会经济发展较快,水资源与生态环境发展相对较慢,复合系统耦合度高于协调度,且耦合协调度呈整体正向发展态势,多数地区为IV级以上。2006年耦合协调度空间分布呈北高南低趋势,北边六州市、南边红河分别处于初级、勉强耦合协调发展阶段;2015年呈西高东低走势,均达到初级协调发展阶段及以上,丽江变化较大,为中级耦合协调发展阶段;2020年呈四周高中间低分布,丽江仍处于中级耦合协调发展阶段领先位置,其余州市均处于初级耦合协调发展阶段。

Exploring the coupling and coordination relationship among society,ecology,and water resources in central Yunnan is of significance to the sustainable development of central Yunnan and Yunnan.Based on emergy analysis and dual water resources sustainable development theory,this paper constructs the emergy evaluation index system of the regional social-ecological-water resources system and employs the coupling coordination degree model to explore the system development index and coupling coordination degree of central Yunnan from 2006 to 2020.The results show that in the past 15 years,the socio-economic development of central Yunnan has developed rapidly,the development of water resources and ecological environment has lagged,and the coupling degree is higher than the coordination degree.Additionally,the coupling coordination degree shows an overall positive development trend,and most areas are above grade IV.In 2006,the spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree showed a trend of a high degree in the north and a low degree in the south.Liuzhou City in the north and Honghe River in the south were in the primary and barely coupled and coordinated development stage respectively.In 2015,there was a trend of high degree in the west and low degree in the east,which all reached the primary coordinated development stage and above,and Lijiang changed greatly to the intermediate coupling coordinated development stage.In 2020,the tendency presented a high degree in the middle and a low degree in the areas around.Lijiang was still in the leading position in the intermediate coupling and coordinated development stage,and the rest of the cities were in the primary coupling and coordinated development stage.