闽江流域特大洪涝干旱风险识别

Risk Identification of Severe Flood and Drought in Minjiang River Basin

为完善闽江流域应对极端水文事件和特大洪旱风险的调度预案,根据流域历史观测资料,利用标准化径流指数SRI、标准化降水指数SPI对闽江流域的特大洪涝干旱风险进行识别并分析。研究结果表明:①通过以年为时间尺度的旱涝分析,旱典型年有2003、2004年,涝典型年有1998、2016年,共计4个典型年份,闽江流域范围内干旱频率较高的区域,洪涝发生的频率则相对较低;②通过以季为时间尺度的旱涝分析,可得闽江流域四季特大洪旱风险年份,其中春、夏两季以特旱为主,秋、冬两季以极涝为主,闽江流域四季SPI3的Z值除春季外均有一定的变化趋势,研究成果可为闽江流域今后应对旱涝极端水文事件、制定特大洪旱风险应急调度方案提供基础数据和技术支持。

To improve the scheduling plan for extreme hydrological events and severe drought and flood risks in the Minjiang River Basin,this paper employs the standardized runoff index SRI and standardized precipitation index SPI to identify and analyze the severe flood and drought risks in Minjiang River Basin according to the historical observation data of the basin.The results are as follows.①First,according to the drought and flood analysis on the time scale of year,there are four typical years in total including the typical drought years of 2003 and 2004 and the typical flood years of 1998 and 2016.The flood occurrence frequency is relatively low in the areas with high drought frequency in the Minjiang River Basin.②Second,according to the seasonal time scale analysis of drought and flood,the risk years of severe drought and flood in Minjiang River Basin in four seasons can be obtained,in which the spring and summer are dominated by extreme drought,and the autumn and winter are dominated by extreme flood.Meanwhile,the Z value of the four seasons SPI3 in Minjiang River Basin has a certain changing trend except in spring.In summary,the research results can provide basic data and technical support for coping with extreme hydrological events of drought and flood in the Minjiang River Basin in the future,and formulating emergency dispatching plans for severe drought and flood risks.