权变框架下我国能源与粮食安全:一个实时测度模型

Energy and food security in China under the contingency framework:A real time measurement method

在逆全球化思潮抬头、局部冲突频发、全球性气候问题加剧多重压力叠加下,保障国家能源和粮食安全成为应对世界动态变革期间的重要任务。然而,当前多体现于基于底线思维的供应安全无法反映“安全”内涵的实时变化。基于函数型数据分析(FDA)方法,构造权变框架下的安全评估体系,动态评估了我国30个省份2003—2019年的能源和粮食安全水平,并使用Function-on-Function(FOF)回归模型分析能源安全对粮食安全的实时影响。研究发现:能源安全的能源供应与运输安全和经济安全两个维度占比最大,环境安全比重逐渐提高;粮食安全的供应安全维度所占比重最大,生态安全的相关指标权重有所上升;随着能源安全与粮食安全内涵重心的改变,两者之间存在变动的非线性关系。

In the face of mounting anti-globalization trends,frequent local conflicts,and intensifying global climate pressures,ensuring national energy and food security has become an important task to cope with the dynamic changes in the world.However,the current security of supply,which is mainly reflected in the bottom-line thinking,cannot reflect the real-time change of the connotation of"security".To solve this problem,based on the functional data analysis(FDA)method,the paper constructs a security assessment system under the dynamic weight framework,and dynamically evaluates the energy and food security level of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2019.Function-on-function(FOF)regression model is used to further analyze the impact of energy security on food security.The results showed that energy supply and transportation security and economic security accounted for the largest proportion,while the proportion of environmental security increased.The dimension of supply security of food security accounted for the largest proportion,and the weight of related indicators of ecological security increased.Further analysis shows that there is a nonlinear relationship between energy security and food security with the change of the connotation center of gravity.