新发展阶段制造业“合意”比重区间探讨

Discussion on the desirable range of China’s manufacturing industry in new stage of development

2006—2018年,我国制造业增加值占国民生产总值比重下降了9.3个百分点,而人均GDP并未达到能够主要依靠服务业实现经济稳定增长的水平,制造业比重的过早、过快下降引发了广泛的担忧。研究认为,在满足工业化一般规律、符合当前技术革命时代特征和中国特殊国情的基础上,中国制造业比重存在一个“合意”区间,这一区间低于发达国家同等发展阶段的平均水平、高于中等发达国家当前平均水平,略高于日德韩等制造强国当前水平、显著高于落入中等收入陷阱国家制造业比重的峰值,同时能够保障在2035年实现人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平战略目标的实现,即在2025年为26.8%~27.3%、2030年为26.3%~26.6%、2035年为25.6%~26.0%。技术进步、国内市场增长、要素配置优化、产业政策改进、区域布局调整能够为我国制造业在产值规模增长放缓的情况下,增加值比重稳定在“合意”区间提供支撑,而要释放制造业发展新动能,则需要着力培育把握新工业革命机遇的能力、发展动力稳定转化的能力和应对外部挑战的能力。

From 2006 to 2018,the proportion of China’s manufacturing added value in GDP fell by 9.3 percentage points,and the per capita GDP has not yet reached the level of stable economic growth that can rely on the service industry as the most important pillar industry,and the premature and rapid decline in the proportion of manufacturing has caused widespread concern.This study believes that on the basis of satisfying the general law of industrialization,conforming to the characteristics of the current era of technological revolution and China’s special global division of labor status and national conditions,there is a“desirable”range for the change of the proportion of China’s manufacturing industry,which is lower than the level of the same development stage of developed countries,higher than the current average level of medium-developed countries,slightly higher than the current level of manufacturing powers such as Japan,Germany and South Korea,and higher than the peak of the proportion of manufacturing in countries that fell into the middle-income trap at that time.At the same time,it can ensure the realization of the strategic goal of achieving per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country in 2035-that is,26.8%~27.3%in 2025,26.3%~26.6%in 2030,and 25.6%~26.0%in 2035.Technological progress,domestic market release,factor allocation optimization,industrial policy improvement,regional layout adjustment,etc.can provide support for China’s manufacturing industry to maintain the proportion of added value in the“desirable”range under the condition of slowing down the growth of output value.Yet in order to release the new momentum of manufacturing development,it is necessary to focus on cultivating the ability to grasp the opportunities of the new industrial revolution,the ability to stabilize the transformation of development momentum and the ability to respond to external challenges.