全球经济蹒跚前行复苏前景仍面临多重风险挑战——2023年世界经济形势分析及2024年展望

The global economy is faltering and the outlook for recovery remains challenged by multiple risks——Analysis of the world economic situation in 2023 and outlook for 2024

2023年世界经济增长持续放缓,增速连续两年回落。主要领域方面,在全球收紧货币政策背景下,市场需求疲软导致全球贸易及制造业活动延续低迷态势,但受跨境旅游业恢复等带动,服务业活动较为活跃,同时高利率助推国际大宗商品价格及全球通胀水平明显回落。主要经济体方面,美国经济表现出较强韧性,欧元区经济依然疲弱,日本及主要新兴经济体经济缓慢修复。展望2024年,在通胀稳步下降、货币政策环境有望放宽以及部分经济体经济较快复苏提振下,世界经济将继续表现出一定韧性,但经济扩张步伐仍然缓慢,全球贸易及投资恢复乏力、核心通胀依然顽固、部分经济体债务及衍生风险高位积累、地缘政治紧张局势加剧,这些风险的发展演化均将损害世界经济增长动力。主要国际组织和机构预计,2024年世界经济增速将为2.2%~3.1%,继续处于历史较低水平。

In 2023,world economic growth will continue to slow down,falling for two consecutive years.In terms of key areas,against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy,weak market demand has led to a continued sluggish trend in global trade and manufacturing activities,but driven by the resumption of cross-border tourism,service sector activities are more active,while high interest rates have pushed down international commodity prices and global inflation significantly.In terms of major economies,the U.S.economy has shown strong resilience,the eurozone economy remains weak,and the economies of Japan and major emerging economies are slowly recovering.Looking ahead to 2024,the world economy will continue to show some resilience,boosted by the steady decline in inflation,the expected easing of monetary policy conditions,and the rapid economic recovery of some economies,but the pace of economic expansion will remain slow,the recovery of global trade and investment will be sluggish,core inflation will remain stubborn,the accumulation of debt and derivative risks in some economies will be high,and the development and evolution of geopolitical tensions will all hurt the development and evolution of world economic growth momentum.Major international organizations and institutions predict that the world economic growth rate will be 2.2%~3.1%in 2024,which will continue to be at a historically low level.