促进国内有效需求面临的挑战与对策建议

Challenges and countermeasures to promote effective domestic demand

2023年中央经济工作会议指出,当前我国仍面临有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等问题。将有效需求不足放在首位,表明我国虽具有完整的产业链和强大的生产能力,但在需求不足的情况下,也无法发挥超大市场规模优势。当前世界经济增长放缓,外需对经济增长的带动作用下降。本文基于统计数据对当前国内需求现状进行分析,指出我国面临居民消费支出增长与新冠疫情前存在差距、房地产开发投资持续疲软、民间投资表现偏弱等方面的问题和挑战,并分析了这些问题和挑战背后的原因,有针对性地提出了促进国内需求提升的政策建议和改革方向。

The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that China is still facing problems such as insufficient effective demand,overcapacity in some industries,and weak social expectations.The lack of effective demand is put in the first place,because even if China has a complete industrial chain and strong production capacity,in the case of insufficient demand,it will not be able to give full play to the advantages of super-large market scale.At present,the world economic growth is slowing down,and the driving role of external demand in economic growth is declining.Therefore,this paper analyzes the current situation of domestic demand based on statistical data,and points out that China is facing problems and challenges such as the gap between the growth of household consumption expenditure and the pre-COVID-19 epidemic,the continued weakness of real estate development investment,and the deviation of private investment performance.This paper also analyzes the reasons behind these problems and challenges,and puts forward policy recommendations and reform directions to promote the improvement of domestic demand.