世界气象中心履职路径及发展状况对比

Comparison of the Performance Path and Development of World Meteorological Centres

为了有效推进“全球监测、全球预报、全球服务”业务能力高质量发展,本文系统梳理了WMO综合处理和预报系统(WIPPS)的设立和升级过程、WIPPS产品应用情况问卷调研结果,并且对比了五个主要世界气象中心的发展路径。结果表明,WIPPS延用了全球资料加工预报系统(GDPFS)的三级业务框架,为会员国提供高质量的数据和产品服务。调查问卷结果显示超过九成的WMO会员会经常使用世界气象中心、区域专业气象中心等中心共享的研究资料和预报产品来提升本国/本区域的气象服务能力。其中,六区协(欧洲)借助WIPPS体系充分发挥了自身资料加工能力强的特点,通过加强资料共享不断提升国际影响力。我国目前尚未有中心被认定为全球牵头中心,但我国也提供了一系列特色区域专业服务,如沙尘暴、区域气候、海洋气象等。在海洋气象服务方面,受限于我国气象系统与海洋系统分属不同部门,在海浪数值预报与服务方面,与其他中心如邻国日本等尚存在差距。我国数值预报水平与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、英国、日本等尚存在一定差距。当前主要世界气象中心制定了一系列发展战略方案以提升预报水平,增强创新能力与科研能力,这也对加快提高我国数值预报能力、切实提高国际中心履职能力提出了更紧迫的要求。

To promote high-quality development of“three global”operation capacity,this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the establishment and upgrading of WIPPS,the questionnaire survey results of WIPPS product application,and compares the development paths of five major world meteorological centres.The results show that WIPPS has maintained the three-level operational framework of GDPFS,providing high-quality data products and services to WMO Members.According to questionnaire results,more than 90%of WMO Members use the research data and forecast products shared by WMC,RSMC and other centres on a regular basis to enhance their national/regional meteorological service capacity.In particular,Regional Association VI(Europe)have leveraged their strong data processing capabilities with the assistance of the WIPPS system and have enhanced their international influence through data sharing.None of the operational centres in China has been recognized as a global leading unit in this feild,but China has provided a range of specialized regional services such as sandstorm,regional climate,and marine meteorology.In terms of numerical forecast and services of ocean waves,there remains a gap compared to other centres such as Japan due to the separation of China’s meteorological and marine systems.China’s numerical forecast level has a notable gap compared to that of advanced centres such as EC,the United Kingdom,and Japan.The major world meteorological centres have formulated a series of strategic development plans to improve the level of forecasting and enhance the ability of innovation and scientific research.Thus,more urgent demand has been put forward for accelerating the improvement of China’s numerical weather prediction capabilities and elevating the international centres’duty performance abilities.