山东省非水田时空格局及影响因素

The Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Non-paddy Fields in Shandong Province

基于山东省土地利用数据和社会经济数据,综合运用土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用动态度模型和地理探测器模型,分析山东省2005—2020年非水田时空格局演变特征和影响因素。研究表明:一是2005—2010年间非水田面积增加了749.52km^(2),从2010年后,非水田面积呈递减趋势,共减少了1 814.03km^(2);二是15年内非水田向其他地类共转出了11 827.09km^(2),其中有82.76%转入了建设用地;三是山东省非水田时空格局主要受年日照时数、年末常住人口、化肥施用量等因素的影响,这些因素与其他因素交互作用均表现出较强的解释力,说明山东省非水田时空格局是各种因素共同作用的结果。

Based on the land use data and socio-economic data of Shandong Province,this study comprehensively used land use transfer matrix,land use dynamic attitude model and geographic detector model to analyze the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the spatio-temporal pattern of non-paddy fields in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2020.The results showed that:first,the non-paddy field increased by 749.52km^(2) from 2005 to 2010,and the area of non-paddy field decreased by 1814.03km^(2) after 2010;second,in 15 years,a total of 11,827.09 km^(2) was transferred from non-paddy fields to other land classes,of which 82.76%was transferred to construction land;third,the spatio-temporal pattern of non-paddy fields in Shandong Province was mainly affected by the annual sunshine duration,year-end resident population,fertilizer application rate and other factors,and the interaction between these factors and other factors showed strong explanatory power,indicating that the spatio-temporal pattern of non-paddy fields in Shandong Province was the result of the joint action of various factors.