中国奶酪市场引力效应与伙伴国贸易前景——以中欧为例

China's Cheese Market Gravitational Effects and Trade Prospects of Partner Countries——China and Europe as an Example

在世界未有之大变局下,奶酪贸易不确定性加剧,严重威胁中国奶酪供需平衡。本文在构建随机前沿引力模型与显性竞争优势指数的基础上,预测中欧奶酪贸易前景。研究结果表明,中欧奶酪贸易效率分布不均,不同国家贸易前景存在较大差异。随机前沿引力模型结果显示:双方人口规模、人均GDP促进中欧奶酪贸易,但双方之间的距离阻碍中欧奶酪贸易;贸易伙伴国政府支出、商业自由度、投资自由度等促进贸易效率,但贸易伙伴国政府诚信、税收负担、贸易自由度和生产者价格对贸易效率有阻碍作用。为了提高中欧奶酪贸易效率,中国应对不同“贸易前景”性质的国家采取异质性进口策略,构筑通达、互联互通的贸易环境、打造自由的营商制度环境,促进中欧奶酪贸易效率,保障中国奶酪贸易安全。

Faced with the unprecedented changes in the world,the uncertainty of cheese trade is intensifying,which seriously threatens the balance of supply and demand of cheese in China.Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model and the dominant competitive advantage index,this paper predicts the trade prospects of cheese be-tween China and Europe.The results of the study prove that there exists an uneven distribution of efficiency in cheese trade between China and Europe,and large gap in the trade prospects of different countries.As suggested by the stochastic frontier gravity model,population size and GDP per capita on both sides are important for boosting the cheese trade between China and Europe,but the distance between the two sides is hindering the trade.There is a contribution to trade efficiency by government spending,business freedom and investment freedom,but there is a hindrance to cheese trade efficiency by government integrity,tax burden,trade freedom and producer prices.In or-der to improve the efficiency of China-Europe cheese trade,China should adopt a heterogeneous import strategy for countries with different trade prospects,construct an accessible and interconnected trade environment,and cre-ate a free business institutional environment to promote the efficiency of China-Europe cheese trade and guarantee the security of China's cheese trade.